Conference Championship NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Connor Allen

Jan 25, 2023

Connor Allen's Top Conference Championship NFL Player Props

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Divisional Round Recap: We added a couple of units to the bankroll last week after winning five bets and losing just two. Both Saquon Barkley and Travis Etienne went under their rushing attempts number, something that wasn’t surprising given the game script that was projected and happened. Dak Prescott nearly doubled his rushing prop of 13.5 yards and Hayden Hurst caught his fourth pass in the early third quarter to win his prop. I did well, but Ryan Noonan absolutely crushed with his tackle props, sweeping the board. He won all six of the tackle props he released!

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Conference Championship Player Prop Bets

Samaje Perine Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM)

This is playable up to 15.5.

Samaje Perine has run 18, 19, 19, and 21 routes in the past four games, more than Joe Mixon in three of them. In the past two weeks, Mixon has only run a combined 22 routes (8 and 14). Perine was targeted five times last week and figures to see multiple targets again here as the Bengals have shifted to a quick-pass approach with their offensive line issues. They lost their first offensive lineman against the Patriots (now missing three starters). Since then, Joe Burrow has targeted running backs on 19.6% of his passes.

Perine and Mixon recorded 31 and 18 receiving yards on seven combined targets last week against a Buffalo team that had generally been good at defending running back passes (3rd in DVOA, 30 yards per game). Now they play against Kansas City who is 28th in DVOA against running back passes and is allowing 46 receiving yards per game to running backs. The Chiefs also could generate even more pressure than Buffalo did as Kansas City is sixth in pressure rate on the year. On top of this, there are some weather concerns that might make it even more advantageous to throw underneath. Twenty-three running backs recorded more than 13 receiving yards against the Chiefs this season!

This number is simply too short for a player who figures to run close to 20 routes in this game in a fantastic matchup.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit at BetMGM.