Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 6 Insights and Analysis

Hello and welcome to the Week 6 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to be targeting players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them. As you can see, I have also added views on the last five weeks of games.

Note: neutral game-script is defined as plays outside of the two-minute warning with a win probability between 20% and 80% for the offensive team.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team's average plays per game (in regulation only, overtime excluded) to its neutral-script pace, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (fewer seconds per play) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team's ps rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn't a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares running back snap percent to his high-value touches (carries inside the 10 and receptions), with the size of the player's point as his total opportunities per game.
• Wide Receiver/Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his targets per route run (TPRR), with the size of the player's point as his receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). WOPR weights both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player's opportunity, while RACR divides a player's receiving yards by his air yards to evaluate his efficiency in the opportunity he is given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Team Pace and Plays

• Two run-heavy and slow teams are typically a recipe for very little fantasy production in a matchup. That's what is most likely to happen in the 49ers vs. Falcons game this Sunday. Both teams rank in the bottom-half of the league in neutral-script pace and in the bottom five in PROE. The game is likely to be more of a struggle for Atlanta, who, despite having the 5th-highest explosive rush (10+ yards) rate, face the best overall defense and the best defense in allowing explosive rushes to opponents. On the flip side, the Falcons' defense ranks 29th in EPA per play, so the 49ers shouldn't have many issues moving the ball. Because of this and the way Atlanta's offense has looked the past couple of weeks, I struggle to start anyone on that offense, but some of the primary 49ers players should be primed for big days.
  • Action: start Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson only in this game
• The Rams (30th in EPA per play) and Panthers (32nd in EPA per play) are both disasters on offense. Neither team moves with a particular sense of urgency either, as they are both in the bottom half of the league in neutral-script pace. Surprisingly, they're both in the top ten in neutral-script no-huddle rate, but that doesn't seem to have them pushing the pace. These teams are also both in the bottom-third of the league in points per game and yards per game, so offensive production will come at a premium. Not only am I betting under the 41-point game total, but also, with the lowest game total on the main slate this week, there isn't anybody outside of Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, or Christian McCaffrey that I would consider starting or playing in DFS.
  • Action: bet under 41 (-107 on PointsBet)

Team Pass Rates

• Get the fireworks ready at Arrowhead because this week's premier game is a rematch of last year's divisional barnburner between the Chiefs in the Bills that ended 42 to 36 and continues to haunt Bills fans. I'm not promising the same offensive explosion, but the writing is on the wall for this being a thrilling matchup. First, as you can see, the Bills and the Chiefs are the two pass-happiest teams, both with a PROE over 10%. Not only do these teams pass a lot, but they also rank first (Chiefs) and second (Bills) in passing EPA per play this season. Oh, and have I mentioned that they're also tied for third in explosive pass (15+ yards) rate at 9.8%. Wait, this can't be right - they're also the top-two scoring teams in the league right now?! Okay, I may have been wrong; bring ALL the fireworks to Kansas City this week.
  • Action: start every fringe pass catcher in this game
• Most teams and their passing tendencies generally make sense to me. But over the last two weeks, one team specifically has stood out: the New York Jets. In the two games that Zach Wilson has been back and healthy, the Jets have a -10% and -5% PROE. This season should, theoretically, be about evaluating if Wilson is the future - maybe they are easing him back after his injury, but it hasn't been great news for his receivers. Garrett Wilson went from averaging 10.7 targets per game in the first three weeks to just 10 targets total over the last two weeks. Similarly, Elijah Moore went from seven targets per game down to eight total targets after he was pegged as a major beneficiary of Wilson's return. This shouldn't cause major concern, though, because they're still both running routes on almost every drop back, it just may be harder to trust them in a starting lineup until we see a bit more volume come their way.
  • Action: hold Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore

Running Back Usage

• Alvin Kamara has struggled to stay healthy this season, already missing two of the first five games. But, when he has played, he's been treated like the team's clear workhorse running back. In his three healthy games, Kamara has played 63.3%, 70.4%, and 71.4% of the team's snaps. Additionally, he's been given 22, and 29 opportunities in each of the last two games and his 21.3 opportunities per game average ranks 7th among running backs. Meanwhile, Mark Ingram is nothing more than a low-level handcuff, as his two highest snap games have come in the two games that Kamara was out and even so, he has failed to reach a 50% snap rate in those games. Unfortunately, Kamara has yet to find the end zone, but his scoring will come in due time.
  • Action: buy Alvin Kamara
• Sunday was Brian Robinson's first return to football action after being shot in the leg multiple times back in August - truly a remarkable recovery. Though he didn't have a successful fantasy day (only 2.2 PPR points scored), but there are plenty of reasons to be encouraged by his usage. First, he led the team with nine total carries, taking that workload away from Antonio Gibson, who was given just three carries (a season-low after getting double-digit carries in every game prior). Robinson did only play on 28.1% of the team's snaps, but Gibson's 31.2% snap rate was also his lowest of the season. It's clear that Robinson is going to cut into Gibson's workload the most as JD McKissic is the team's primary receiving back - he has run a route on over 50% of dropbacks in each of the last three games and an average of seven targets per game over that span.
  • Action: add Brian Robinson, hold JD McKissic, and sell Antonio Gibson (if that's even possible)

Wide Receiver Usage

• It is officially Kenny Pickett SZN in Pittsburgh, so what exactly does that mean for his pass catchers? Well, Diontae Johnson remains the clear-cut WR1 for the Steelers, regardless of who's under center, as he notched his fourth game with at least 11 targets on Sunday, something no other Steelers pass catcher has done this season. Behind him, though, it's a little cloudier. Chase Claypool has just one more target this season than George Pickens does. Claypool also have a slight edge in routes run, but Pickens has taken over the deep-threat role with a 15.4-yard average depth of target compared to just 9.6 yards for Claypool. Shockingly, no Steelers wide receiver has scored a touchdown this season. Keep in mind, though, that the Steelers did face the number one defense in the league (the Buffalo Bills) on Sunday - it may not get much easier with the Bucs, Dolphins, and Eagles up before Pittsburgh's Week 9 bye, but the receivers on the team should still have better days ahead.
  • Action: hold Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Goerge Pickens
• In one week's time, fantasy managers around the world and the Arizona Cardinals will welcome DeAndre Hopkins back to their lineups. For the last five weeks of Hopkins serving his six-game suspension, we've been waiting for someone to step up, but that simply hasn't been the case. Rondale Moore was pinned as that player by many, but he missed the first three games. In the last two games he's been very active, running a route on 95% of the team's dropbacks and earning an 18.8% target share in those two games. Moore is still being used as a gadget player, though, with just a 5.8-yard average depth of target. Since the Cardinals have the 19th-highest PROE at -1.7% and Kyler Murray's proclivity for running, volume is a little bit harder to come by these days. Arizona is still one of the more concentrated passing attacks, but when Hopkins returns, he will likely push out all of the ancillary pieces.
  • Action: drop every Cardinals wide receiver not named Marquise Brown or DeAndre Hopkins

Tight End Usage

• Hayden Hurst is now on his third NFL team and is long removed from being a first-round draft pick, but he finds himself working his way into a solid role with the Bengals. With touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, Hurst is now the TE11 in PPR. But that's not the reason I'm getting excited about him - his usage has actually very encouraging. Hurst has run a route on at least 75% of Cincinnati's dropbacks in three of five games this season and has at least seven targets in as many games. In a fantasy landscape void of tight end talent, especially as we enter teams with bye weeks, you could do worse than Hayden Hurst.
  • Action: add Hayden Hurst
• So it turns out that Tom Brady may just make another tight end a valuable fantasy asset this season. With Cameron Brate out this week due to a concussion, rookie Cade Otton stepped in admirably to record six catches for 43 yards on seven targets (tied for the team-high in the game). Otton also ran a route on 94.2% of the team's dropbacks, which is the highest single-game rate for a Bucs player so far this season. Now that Tampa Bay is starting to pass more frequently (16.7% PROE the last two weeks), Otton certainly could have earned himself a role in this offense.
  • Action: add Cade Otton and start him as long as Cameron Brate is out