Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 7 Insights and Analysis

Hello and welcome to the Week 7 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to be targeting players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them. As you can see, I have also added views on the last five weeks of games.

Note: neutral game-script is defined as plays outside of the two-minute warning with a win probability between 20% and 80% for the offensive team.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team's average plays per game (in regulation only, overtime excluded) to its neutral-script pace, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (fewer seconds per play) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team's ps rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn't a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares running back snap percent to his high-value touches (carries inside the 10 and receptions), with the size of the player's point as his total opportunities per game.
• Wide Receiver/Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his targets per route run (TPRR), with the size of the player's point as his receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). WOPR weights both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player's opportunity, while RACR divides a player's receiving yards by his air yards to evaluate his efficiency in the opportunity he is given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Team Pace and Plays

• The two teams typically featured on Thanksgiving get to faceoff in a fall classic this Sunday as the Dallas Cowboys host the Detroit Lions. Dallas' offense hit a speed bump this past week against Philadelphia and has generally struggled to move the ball as it's averaging the 7th-fewest plays per game with Cooper Rush under center. However, there's some optimism that Dak Prescott could return this Sunday, which would immediately inject some energy into this offense. Even so, Detroit is by far the worst defense (ranks last in yards per game, EPA per play, points per game, success rate, and more), so Dallas should have no issue getting things going. With both of these teams ranking in the league's top half in neutral-script pace, we could see a game filled with plenty of plays and scoring. Detroit hasn't faced a great slate of defenses, but they still scored more total points than 20 other teams despite having a bye and being shut out in a game. Our own Adam Hutchinson has projected that D'Andre Swift could return this week, too, which would give Detroit's offense its own boost. I expect this to be a high-flying affair
  • Action: bet over 48 (-110 on BetMGM)
• Do you want the good news or the bad news first? The good news is that the Broncos aren't in primetime this week. The bad news is that the NFL scheduling gods have plunged Denver into the late-afternoon slate when only three other games are going on. Their opponent, the 4-2 New York Jets, are heading in the opposite direction, as they've won three straight and might actually be the more promising team. But the Jets' offense, currently ranked 21st in EPA per play, still has yet to find a groove and will face one of the best defenses in the league this Sunday (Denver ranks 6th in EPA per play allowed). With both teams ranking in the bottom-half in neutral-script pace and the game featuring a 39.5-point game total (tied for the lowest on the week), fantasy points will come at a premium for both teams.
  • Action: fade all players in this game in DFS and in regular redraft, where possible

Team Pass Rates

• One team trending in the right direction in terms of pass heaviness is the Cincinnati Bengals. After starting the season with a -1.9% PROE in the first two weeks, I thought that Zac Taylor had returned to his old playcalling and was putting the Corvette back in the garage. However, since Week 3, Cincinnati has an 8.7% PROE, which is fourth-highest in the league in that span. Another positive trend for the Bengals is that their offense is becoming more concentrated among their top three pass-catchers. In that same four-week span, Ja'Marr Chase (27.9%), Tee Higgins (24.5%), and Tyler Boyd (14.7%) have combined for a 67.1% target share, the 8th-highest total in the league. With all three of those receivers running a route on over 90% of the team's snaps when healthy, all of these guys have a chance to continue to go off.
  • Action: buy or hold Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd
• I mentioned earlier that the Jets vs. Broncos game is tied for the lowest game total on the week at 39.5. The game it's tied with? The scintillating Monday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots. The logic behind this one having such a low total is in part due to the run-heavy nature of these teams, as they both rank in the bottom half of the league in PROE. Both teams have been rather effective running the ball as they both rank in the top 13 in rushing EPA per play and in the top 10 in explosive rush rate, so it makes sense that they would continue to be run-heavy. Rhamondre Stevenson is the one who will draw the better matchup, though. The six running backs who have recorded at least 10 carries against the Bears have averaged 95.5 rushing yards, and Stevenson doesn't have fewer than 12 carries in a game since Week 3.
  • Action: start only Rhamondre Stevenson with confidence (and David Montgomery if you need to)

Running Back Usage

• It's been wild ride in Baltimore this season as they've blown multiple fourth-quarter leads, and it, in large part, is due to the lack of success they've had rushing outside of Lamar Jackson. JK Dobbins scored two touchdowns in just his second game back this season, and almost everyone was ready to jump back in as Dobbins being HIM. Almost everyone. Over his last two games, Dobbins has totaled just 59 rushing yards on 15 carries and hasn't gotten a single target. Now, Harbaugh is saying that Dobbins' knee tightned up, which accounted for his lack of playing time and I would suspect could linger through the season. In his stead, Kenyan Drake played on 59.7% of the team's snaps, a season-high mark for any Ravens running back this season. He's also posted 1.55 RYOE per carry compared to -0.83 RYOE per carry for Dobbins. Granted, a lot of that was boosted by his long touchdown score on Sunday, but we have yet to see that level of explosiveness from Dobbins.
  • Action: sell JK Dobbins and buy Kenyan Drake
• The Travis Etienne takeover has been looming all season long, and I'm here to tell you that it's right around the corner. Through the first three weeks of the season, James Robinson had an edge over Etienne in snaps (56% to 44.5%) and opportunities (19.3 per game to 12 per game). Over the last three weeks, that has flipped in Etienne's favor as he's handled a 50.8% snap share compared to 42.7% for Robinson. Etienne still is averaging only 12 opportunities per game, but he has deserved a larger workload as he's been the more efficient player from a rushing and receiving perspective. Truly speaking, this will continue to be a running back by committee in Jacksonville, but it's looking like it may turn in Etienne's favor as the lead back.
  • Action: buy Travis Etienne and start both him and James Robinson

Wide Receiver Usage

• The people who thought Patrick Mahomes would struggle without Tyreek Hill were sorely mistaken. He's had success this year in large part because he's had so many solid options to throw to, but that hasn't been great for us from a fantasy perspective. Last year, Hill earned a 22.6% target share, averaging over 9.4 targets per game. This year, no Chiefs receiver is averaging more than seven targets per game as Travis Kelce has become the de facto WR1 with his 24.2% target share. Juju Smith-Schuster currently leads Chiefs receivers with an 18.7% target share and finally found the end zone this past week thanks to some terrible tackling. Juju's 1.75 yards per route run ranks just 25th among 51 wide receivers with at least 30 targets, so there's definitely some room for improvement. Also, despite putting up a goose egg on Sunday, I'm still very much in on Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He and Juju are the lone receivers running a route on more than 80% of the team's snaps, and he has a very solid 0.38 WOPR. If the passing offense starts to become more focused in on MVS and Juju, then they are in for a massive rest of the season.
  • Action: buy Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling
• I want to talk a little bit more about the Jets because their fans are riding a massive high right now after beating my Green Bay Packers, and I need to bring them down a peg. In the three games that Zach Wilson has started this year, the Jets have a -7.3% PROE - not exactly screaming, "I trust our young quarterback," but I could be wrong. Because of this, Elijah Moore has just eight targets in three weeks - not great! This is despite running a route on 87.5% of routes in those games. Garrett Wilson has fared a little bit better (the operative phrase being "a little bit") with 15 total targets for a 21.1% target share, but he's only caught six of them, giving him an abysmal 40% catch rate (including three drops). Meanwhile, Corey Davis is just hanging around, averaging 54.7 yards per game with Wilson this year. None of these players are startable in fantasy right now with the lack of volume and efficiency, but I'm still hoping for Wilson to pan out in the long run.
  • Action: drop Elijah Moore, fade Corey Davis, hold Garrett Wilson

Tight End Usage

• If you read this article regularly (first of all, thank you), then you'll remember how I talked about how big of a mess the Colts' tight end room was. Now, let me present to you the Cowboys' mess of tight ends. All of Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson, and Peyton Hendershot (yes, real person) are averaging between 3.3 and 4.2 targets per game, and none of them have played more than four games this season. The bull case for Schultz this season was the lack of target competition (and Dak's injury combined with his own have muddled things), but he hasn't gotten anything going with just 17 PPR points all season. If you want some optimism for Schultz, he's running a route on 79.4% of Dallas' dropbacks, but I would suggest finding another option.
  • Action: fade every Cowboys tight end
• Coming off of an ACL tear, Robert Tonyan was eased in to start the season, running a route on fewer than 50% of the team's dropbacks in each of the first two weeks and earning just seven total targets. In his last four games, Tonyan is averaging 6.2 targets per game (including 12 this past week) and has run a route on 63.6% of dropbacks (including 75.5% this past week). Over that span, Tonyan's 0.24 targets per route run ranks 6th among tight ends with at least 15 targets. With Randall Cobb set to miss several weeks and the Packers lacking receiving talent, Tonyan should be set up well to continue to get a lot of volume.
  • Action: add Robert Tonyan