SharpClarke's Week 6 Betting Recap: Evaluating Miami's QB Carousel

The parity that has plagued (or blessed) the NFL this season continued in Week 6, as we saw several high-profile upsets. I have graded 13 games so far and, incredibly, 10 of those games featured two teams with nearly identical effectiveness ratings. That ratio is higher even than in previous weeks this season. And even when one team grades higher than the other team, they don't always win.

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The Ravens were more effective overall than the Giants, but some key penalties at inopportune times, combined with a Giants team that is avoiding mistakes and capitalizing on every mistake by its opponents, led to an outright Giants victory. This is today's NFL. We don't bet on which team will move the ball. We bet on who will win (or cover the spread). But it's important not to get carried away with results and ignore what is happening on the field. Plucky teams like the Giants tend to fall back to earth if they lack talent. Of course, I won't bring up how easy their remaining schedule is. Instead, I'd like to recap the Vikings-Dolphins showdown and talk about the Dolphins' quarterback situation.

MIN 24, MIA 16

Effectiveness Ratings

MIN: 5.00
MIA: 5.34 (5.52 with Skylar Thompson, 5.27 with Teddy Bridgewater)

Effective Result: MIA by 4.08

This game was a disaster for Dolphins bettors. From the opening kickoff, it looked like Minnesota would struggle on offense all day. As I predicted, the Dolphins' secondary was able to lock up Kirk Cousins' favorite target, and Cousins struggled to adapt. The underrated Dolphins' run defense also bottled up Dalvin Cook. The Vikings opened the game with four straight three-and-outs, and the Vikings did not even come close to a first down. Meanwhile, the Dolphins were moving the ball effectively with Skylar Thompson at quarterback, as Mike McDaniel's game plan was clearly working. A negative play took them out of field goal range on the opening drive, and a series of penalties negated some huge gains for Miami on the second drive, preventing gains to the Vikings' 2-yard line and 9-yard line, forcing another punt. After three drives with Thompson and four with Cousins, Miami had over 100 yards and the Vikings had 15.

But then Thompson got hurt. Offensively, Teddy Bridgewater made some huge mistakes and constantly held the ball too long, leading to sacks. Defensively, Nick Needham, one of the Dolphins' few remaining cornerbacks with Byron Jones out, hurt his leg and was ruled out for the game. This finally allowed the Vikings to move the ball a little, but even then, they were ineffective. In all, the Vikings had an incredible 10 drives that went three-and-out. But Bridgewater could not capitalize. His numbers looked okay, but he only had that many opportunities because of how well the Dolphins' defense shut down Minnesota. He did most of his real damage during garbage time.

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Before the game, many were confused why McDaniel would go with Thompson over Bridgewater, even if Bridgewater was cleared. But he knows what he is doing. I have been a big fan of Bridgewater's over the years (primarily because he has won me a lot of money), but after six weeks, I can comfortably say he is a bad fit for this offense. McDaniel built his entire scheme around Tua Tagovailoa's strength, which is making snappy decisions and reacting quickly. They don't have the offensive line to protect the quarterback and let plays develop over time. Thompson was decisive and accurate. Not to Tagovailoa's level, but in the same vein. Bridgewater, by contrast, has bogged this offense down by being slow to make decisions. He takes more sacks and throws more balls into the dirt (or into a defender's hands) than either Tagovailoa or Thompson. He also stunts the run game because the offense becomes more predictable without a high level of comfort running RPOs. It happened against Cincinnati and now it happened against Minnesota. Moving forward, the Dolphins should be upgraded significantly with a healthy Tagovailoa, take a small downgrade with Thompson, and a notable downgrade when they play with Bridgewater.

SharpClarke Week 6 Betting Recap

I continue to trust the process, but the results so far have been underwhelming this season. So many games are decided by the thinnest margins, and they seem to constantly go against me. Just this week, the Colts only needed a field goal to win by two points and allow my JAC +2.5 bet to cash, but instead threw a touchdown pass on 3rd-and-13 with 17 seconds left to bury my cover. That was the epitome of my week, as I finished 5-6 for -2.14 units. Fortunately, my matchup of the week was a smash (Seahawks). On the season, I'm still waiting to break out at 30-30 (50%) for -3.01 units. I had another 2-3 week in the SuperContest, losing on MIA +3.5 (see above), JAC +2.5 (brutal, as noted), BAL -5.5 (blowing a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Giants), and winning with SEA +2.5 and DEN +5. I still have full confidence I will finish the year in the black and will continue to trust what I see on the field in making decisions. A few lessons learned on some specific bets:

SF Team Total O 24.5 (-107): This bet felt extremely solid when the Falcons took a 28-14 lead. But the 49ers simply couldn't finish drives, despite moving the ball with ease. The 49ers finished with 21 first downs on 6.1 yards per play, but two turnovers in Falcons territory and a turnover on downs late sealed the loss for me. Playing totals tends to have higher variance than spreads, and I think the better play here was the Falcons' team total over, given all the 49ers' defensive injuries. I likely need to avoid playing overs in general with two teams that like to run and quarterbacks who cannot be relied on to deliver a comeback.

MIA +3.5 (-115): As explained above, my handicap on this game was accurate. Unfortunately, injuries happen. Even with all the negative variance, the Dolphins were in a position to tie the game late, when Jaylen Waddle fumbled the ball on a first-down catch in Vikings territory. Given the spread was 3.5, the game was set up for a cover regardless. But fumbles are difficult to predict, and the Vikings turned it into a cover.

SEA +3 (-110), +2.5 (-110), ML (+130): My game of the week cashed in style, as the Seahawks won by 10 as underdogs. However, I admit that only half my handicap was correct here. I thought Geno Smith would handle the blitz well. For the most part, he did not. That's something to adapt to moving forward. He tends to hold the ball too long trying to make a play. Fortunately, my read that the Cardinals' offense would struggle was strong enough to deliver the win on its own.

For all my bets and analysis, you can join the 4for4 Discord via a 4for4 betting subscription (10% off with code SharpClarke) and follow @SharpClarkeNFL on Twitter for alerts. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.