SharpClarke's Best Week 8 NFL Bet: MIA @ DET Matchup Spotlight

This week's matchup breakdown highlights the Miami Dolphins visiting the Detroit Lions in the early afternoon slate of games. Both these young head coaches have both clearly won over their teams and their fan bases and look to show how that translates on the field here. The Dolphins are the superior team, especially with a healthy Tua Tagaovailoa, and have settled in as 3.5-point road favorites here. Bettors and books also expect points in this one, with a 51.5-point total. The Lions have been known for playing teams to the wire the last two years, but have come up flat in back-to-back double-digit losses on the road in their last two games. Let's dive in.

My Numbers

Miami: 10th (Offense: 13th, Defense: 16th)
Detroit: 24th (Offense: 12th, Defense: 31st)
Baseline: MIA -1, -110 Moneyline

Matchup Breakdown

DET Offense vs. MIA Defense

The Lions were one of the top offenses in the league for the first four weeks of the season. Their elite offensive line had been protecting Jared Goff, and Ben Johnson had figured out some wrinkles to get explosive plays out of Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift. They skewed a little run-heavy for my liking, but they offset sub-optimal early-down runs by aggressively going for it on fourth down. When you have four downs to get 10 yards, an early-down run becomes marginally more effective. They averaged 35 points over this stretch. Then they lost their two best playmakers in St. Brown and Swift. They also went on the road and faced the Patriots and Cowboys. Bill Belichick once again stymied Goff as he did in the Super Bowl, and the Cowboys' excellent defensive line kept the offense under wraps. They scored a total of six points in two games. Quite the contrast.

Either the Lions' offense was a gimmick to begin with that quickly got figured out, or there were some specific matchup and situational factors in play their last two games that caused such a dramatic drop-off. I believe it's the latter and I like the Lions to rebound here on offense for several reasons. First, they should have Swift and St. Brown back. Without their explosiveness, everything tightens up. Second, they will be playing at home, on a good field, in a dome. Goff famously struggles outdoors and should be much more comfortable here. Third, the Dolphins' defense is not an imposing matchup. Their numbers are fairly good against the run overall, but they have yet to play an offensive line of this caliber. And we know that the key to stopping Goff is to pressure him. The Cowboys and Patriots are both top-three in pressure rate on the season and unsurprisingly caused the offense problems. The Dolphins are 29th in pressure rate. On the back end, they have suffered several serious injuries in the secondary after now losing safety Brandon Jones for the season. With time in the pocket, a run game to lean on, and receivers likely finding open spots downfield, I expect the Lions' offense to fully get back on track here.

MIA Offense vs. DET Defense

Miami's offense should also succeed here. Some of the same things that help Detroit—indoors, good turf, etc.—will apply to what is possibly the fastest offense in the NFL. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert present a nightmare for defensive coordinators. With Tagovailoa running the show, chunk plays are inevitable. Specifically, his lightning-quick decision-making will make it impossible for an underwhelming Lions' defense to stop them. But we all know that. Everyone expects the Dolphins to dominate on offense. Betting is about understanding when teams will fall short or exceed median expectations. Given the way Tagovailoa plays quarterback, there is a possibility Miami falls short here. Let me explain.

Tagovailoa often gets praised for his accuracy. When he is accurate, his ball placement is elite. This allows him to make tight-window throws, which can beat even the best coverages. He also makes decisions so quickly once the ball is snapped that elite defensive lines cannot get to him quickly enough. These traits are really important if you want to go up against the NFL's best passing defenses and win. It's a big reason they beat the Bills, and it's how they have structured their offense: To take down the NFL's best. I laud that. But Tagovailoa's weakness is that he is inconsistent. Despite being praised for accuracy, he throws some wild throws. We saw this on full display last week when he threw multiple passes straight to defenders. Some claim this was just some rust from his injury, but this has always been a feature of his game. It's not new.

This means Miami's offense is less defined by the quality of defense that they play. The Steelers' defense is middle-of-the-pack at best, and the Dolphins only put up 16 points in that game. Their mistakes tend to happen regardless of who is playing defense. So, when projecting Miami's offense against one of the NFL's worst defenses, it's fair to wonder just how effective they will be. I expect a lot of chunk plays, long touchdown drives, and points. But I also expect a few drives to end with either a careless turnover or a miss on third down. It's also possible Tagovailoa plays a perfect game, of course. But when betting, it's important to factor in the range of possible outcomes.

See the rest of SharpClarke's Week 8 Betting Card

Prediction

Both offenses have success moving the ball. The Dolphins score touchdowns on several chunk plays and the Lions move the ball more methodically, needing some key third- and fourth-down conversions to keep drives alive. But with an offensive line that wins and playmakers in Swift and St. Brown, the Lions match the Dolphins punch for punch. A key Tagovailoa mistake allows the Lions to take the lead in the fourth quarter, and the Dolphins' defense is unable to get off the field when it matters.

Final Score Prediction: DET 34, MIA 30

Market Evaluation

This line opened at MIA -3, but influential bettors liked Miami enough and the books moved to MIA -3.5 across the board. The total opened around 50 after showing as low as 48.5 on the look-ahead, but that also got bet up to 51.5. So the early- and mid-week money has been on the Dolphins and the over. That's not surprising, given how the Lions have looked in their last two games and how these offenses project to have success. I understand why MIA -3 was attractive to bettors, especially considering how the Lions have been unable to win games but have been able to keep it close. The hook here matters quite a bit. I am comfortable taking the opposite side here with the Lions, especially with the risk that good injury news on Swift and St. Brown could bring this back down to 3. As for the total, 51.5 is probably efficient after opening too low.

Best Bets

DET +3.5 (-105) (Caesars) - *if you are lucky enough to be in Colorado (like me), DET +4.5 (-112) (Circa CO)*

DET ML (+160) (DraftKings)

DET Team Total Over 23.5 (-116) (FanDuel)

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