Best Week 9 Prophet Exchange Bets: Tua Torches the Total

This week the focus on Prophet Exchange is on totals and teams that are headed in opposite directions offensively. The more recent sample versus the entire season really provides some value on these plays. Prophet Exchange runs on peer-to-peer betting, so the benefit is passed on to the bettor with more forgiving juice. You can read here for more on the benefits of using a betting exchange like Prophet Exchange. Let’s see where the value lies in Week 9…

Week 9 Prophet Exchange Picks

Dolphins @ Bears Over 45.5 Points

*Betting on Prophet Exchange takes the juice from -107 to +100.

This is as high of a total as the Bears have seen all season but with the high-voltage Dolphins offense coming to Soldier Field and the Luke Getsy-Justin Fields combo finding their stride, the number is justified.

With the ball, Miami should have a significant advantage over an undermanned Bears defense. The Dolphins are fifth in offensive DVOA on the season and third in the passing game. Defensively, the Bears are 26th in DVOA but have been more respectable against the pass at 18th. In the last two weeks, the Bears have lost two of their most impactful defensive players to trades in Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith. While the Chicago secondary has some talent, if there is no pass rush left, even the best defensive backs can only cover for so long.

Miami has the second most pass plays of 20+ yards and the most of 40+. Considering the much-talked-about arm strength of Tua Tagovailoa and the always much-discussed weather in Chicago, the rain is looking like it will clear out by Saturday night and the wind on the lakefront will be around 15 MPH, generally less than what is considered to truly impact quarterback accuracy. Adding Jeff Wilson Jr. to old friend Raheem Mostert should play well too because they are facing the 28th-ranked run defense, per DVOA. If Miami is able to get the run game going along with the pass, there is no stopping them.

What raises the floor on the total in this game is the improved play of Justin Fields and the Bears' offense over the last two weeks. The Bears have put up their two best scoring outputs in their last two games—33 and 29 points. Utilizing Justin Fields more as a runner and keeping him on the move has been great for improving an offense ranked 31st in passing but 18th in rushing, per DVOA. Those season-long numbers help to keep down the total. However, with how the team has shown signs of improvement and bringing in Chase Claypool from the Steelers to take attention off Darnell Mooney and the top off the defense, the ceiling for the Bears' offense feels higher than it has been all year.

Colts @ Patriots Under 40.5 Points

*Betting on Prophet Exchange takes the juice from -107 to +100.

Now for something completely different. Neither of these teams is in good form at the moment and Indianapolis is breaking in Sam Ehlinger, taking away any sort of floor the Colts' offense could have had.

Regardless of the opponent, these teams have combined for nine of their 16 games going under this total. Put these two struggling offenses together and have that clothespin ready for your nose. The Patriots are the 24th-ranked offense, per DVOA, and the Colts are dead last. The Patriots also boast the sixth-ranked defense, which has been fifth-rated against the pass but only 27th against the run. The problem for the Colts is that star running back Jonathan Taylor has not practiced this week and his status is very much in the air. With Nyheim Hines traded, the talent in the backfield is lacking and Indianapolis’ ability to run the ball well should be questioned. Even if Ehlinger gave a respectable showing in his first start, doing that against the fifth-ranked pass defense as opposed to the 28th-ranked pass defense is a different animal.

For New England, there just is not any burst or big play ability to the offense. Some of that is due to quarterback play that limits the number of chunks that can be taken, but it is also a scheme that has been questioned and is led by two coaches in Matt Patricia and Joe Judge who do not have the most diverse offensive backgrounds. The Patriots will want to run the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson, who can make big plays, but the Colts are sixth in rush defense per DVOA. DeVante Parker is one of the few that can make a big play through the air for the Patriots but he has consecutive DNPs this week so there is no guarantee he plays or is effective if he does.

This game just screams both teams attempting to run the ball, wanting the game slowed to a crawl, and limiting the mistakes their signal-callers can make. If that does not sound like the recipe for a game that does not touch 40, I am not sure what does.

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