March Madness Sweet 16 Best Bets for 2023 NCAA Tournament

Mar 22, 2023

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Now that we have had a few days to recharge, it is time to dive into this week’s action in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

The Sweet 16 will take place over the course of two days on Thursday and Friday, with eight different matchups offering their own level of intrigue. I certainly won’t be leaving my couch for these two evening slates.

From a betting perceptive, it can get more difficult to find value the deeper we get into the tourney. But I think we’ve located a few different angles worth attacking ahead of this much-anticipated Sweet 16 action.

March Madness Sweet 16 Best Bets

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San Diego State +8 (-110 via DraftKings)

The esteemed Connor Allen gave out Alabama -6 in his Sweet 16 best bets column, so I’m risking my position with the 4for4 staff by going head-to-head with him in this game. But I actually think the opening line was pretty accurate, as I made this spread 5.5. For what it is worth, ShotQuality has set this line at 2.5.

San Diego State is fourth in the nation at defending the 3-point line, allowing teams to shoot 28.7% from deep. The Aztecs rank in the 80th percentile at defending teams in transition, according to Synergy Sports Technology. They want to slow the game down and play at the 263rd-ranked pace in the country.

Alabama wants to turn this game into a track meet, as it ranks fifth in adjusted tempo. The Crimson Tide are taking the eighth-most 3-pointers in the country, getting over 36% of their offensive production from long range.

In short, this is a strength-on-strength matchup. Alabama might eventually overwhelm San Diego State for the win, but I’ll bet against this being a three-possession game.

Risk: 1.1 units at DraftKings. Playable at +7.5 or better.