NBA Player Prop Bets: Donovan Mitchell Will Turn Off The Heat

Mar 10, 2023

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We have a rather quiet six-game slate around the association on Friday before a massive day of Saturday hoops, but there are still some incredibly important games with playoff implications on Friday. This should create condensed rotations and make props even more targetable for core players, as we could see their workloads look more like playoff workloads tonight. My three favorite props are outlined below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.

Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 10, 2023)

Donovan Mitchell Over 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110 at DraftKings)

This play is two-fold, as it’s certainly a prop that I feel confident in should the Cavaliers roll out a healthy starting lineup, but there also looks to be a significant chance that they’ll be without Darius Garland, who was a mid-day downgrade with a quad issue after missing morning shootaround.

We’ve seen Mitchell thrive without Garland active on eight different occasions this season, as he’s averaged 33.5 points, 7.6 assists, and 5.2 rebounds with a 34% usage rate while averaging over 40 minutes per contest. The beauty of this prop is that even if Garland does suit up, Mitchell maintains an elite role, as he’s posted a 31% usage rate with Garland this season.

The Heat are not quite the defensive unit they once were as Jimmy Butler continues to slow down, and with Mitchell hitting this over in six of his last 10 games, he comes into this in great form to do it once again.

Risk: 1.1 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.