NBA Player Prop Bets: Embiid's Quest for MVP Continues

Mar 15, 2023

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Aaron Rodgers drama be damned, we have a seven-game NBA slate with a ton of injury implications, playoff-seeding implications, and stars taking the court. My three favorite player props for Wednesday’s slate are outlined below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.

Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 15, 2023)

Joel Embiid Over 31.5 Points (-105 at BetMGM)

You can see it in his eyes (and in the betting market), Joel Embiid is gunning for the MVP award. After sitting around +400 for the better part of the last few weeks, Embiid has shot up the board, sitting at +150 on BetMGM with Nikola Jokic carrying a narrow lead (+100). This is a direct result of his dominance on the court as of late, as he’s in the midst of arguably his best stretch of the season.

Over his last 10 games, Embiid has averaged 34.4 points on 53.9% shooting from the field, all while only shooting 32% from deep. He’s also gotten to the line 13.5 times per game, shooting 84.4%. He only seems to be getting hotter, too, as his last six games have seen him average 36.7 points on 59.8% shooting (50.0% from three).

While the Cavs aren’t typically a matchup to attack, that changes a bit with Jarrett Allen out. Evan Mobley is no slouch defensively, but having the ability to deploy only one defensive big will certainly cater to Embiid’s ceiling. Given the importance of this game from a seeding perspective as well as Embiid’s form and his quest for MVP, I’m riding his coattail at this current price.

Risk: 1.05 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit.