Monotone's Conference Championship Best Bets: NFL Playoff Player Prop Bets

In the divisional round of the playoffs, we went 4-4 on picks for -0.55u. We got off to a fantastic start, but Lamar Jackson rushing and Justice Hill receiving led us into the red despite a fantastic game script. We now only have four teams remaining, yet we still have some fantastic numbers available on the board. Both teams are dealing with various injuries that key positions, creating some solid value later in the week. Check out my favorite plays for Sunday's slate.

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NFL Conference Championship Props

Curtis Samuel o1.5 receptions -120

He’s over this number in both postseason games so far, second of all Bills WR’s in targets.

• Khalil Shakir: 41 routes run, 13 targets

• Keon Coleman: 30 routes, 4 targets

• Mack Hollins: 27 routes, 4 targets

• Curtis Samuel: 26 routes, 5 targets

• Amari Cooper: 23 routes, 4 targets

While it has been an absolute mess at the position, I think Curtis Samuel’s short-yardage skillset makes him stand out against this blitz-happy Chiefs defense. Shakir will also be involved there, but he gets the tougher matchup against McDuffie; they’ve used Samuel in some creative ways, including routes out of the backfield in both games.

From @NextGenStats: the Chiefs defense sacked C.J. Stroud 8.0 times, with pressures on more than half of his dropbacks (21 of 41, 51.2%).

Across Steve Spagnuolo's 17 blitzes, the Chiefs had 12 pressures, including eight from unblocked pass rushers. While the Bills offensive line is better, Spags is going to have some creative blitz packages for this one. Allen will need to get the ball out quickly to counteract this, and we’ve seen the Bills effectively use the WR screen game in those situations this year. When these teams faced earlier, Samuel had his best regular season game of the year, going 5-58-1 on 6 targets. I see why people would run away from a team spread so thin at the position, but I think there are a lot of reasons to believe that Samuels' skillset could be important in this game.

Risk 1.2u to win 1u -115 MGM, -120 FD, -130 CZR/DK playable to -145 or pivot to yards to 14.5

Xavier Worthy o4.5 receptions -140

Xavier Worthy has been one of my favorite players to back in the second half of the season; the only problem is deciding what market to back him in. His rushing usage is extremely interesting for a receiver, and his role in the red zone has been exciting to follow in the second half of the season. That being said, I think his receptions is his best market. He is one of the fastest guys in the league, but instead of using him as a deep threat, they have taken advantage of that short-area quickness in the screen game. Since this receiver room got fully healthy in Week 15, Xavier Worthy has averaged over 2 screen passes per game, with 13 during that span. Getting easy short-yardage completions is key to cashing these receptions props, and Worthy runs great routes to do just that.

When you look at the Bills' defense, they are going to play a lot of zone and cover 2, forcing Mahomes to beat them with shorter throws. The Chiefs have a lot of great weapons to do that, and Worthy is always used in creative ways to create mismatches against linebackers and safeties. A lot of people speculated that DeAndre Hopkins might eat into his role in the postseason, but in reality, Worthy still led the team in routes last week. Kelce has dominated them in years past but they are finally a bit healthier at the position, and he will always be the main priority for defenses. He's looked fantastic in the second half of the season, and I expect the breakout to continue on Sunday.

Risk 1u -140 FD, -145 MGM, -150 CZR/365

Saquon Barkley o12.5 rec yards -110

I think there are a lot of paths to victory here for one of the most talented running backs in football playing 90%+ snaps. Barkley went over this last game with 4 catches for 27 yards, and his ability to break a big play on any given down makes yards/longest reception the go-to target. I expect Washington to completely sell out to stop the run, making them vulnerable to some creative short-passing. Hurts clearly hasn’t been trusted by the coaching staff, and I could see them get him comfortable with some easy short completions to his more reliable player.

Additionally, the injury to Jalen Hurts could limit his scrambling ability, and force some different short-yardage receiving snaps as a way to mix it up from the traditional ground game. Barkley has held a Herculean role for this Philly team, and I have a hard time not seeing that benefit him in the receiving game in this one.

Risk 1.1u to win 1u -110 365/DK, 13.5 FD, playable to 14.5 -110

Austin Ekeler o25.5 receiving yards -110 to win .5u DK/FD/CZR

Austin Ekeler/Zach Ertz 3+ receptions -105 DK to win .5u DK/FD/365

Ekeler 4+ receptions +140 risk .25u 365/DK

Joining the fellas, but splitting my bet a little bit because I like Ekeler receptions a bit more than yards. The Eagles are a fantastic tackling defense, and while they take a hit without Dean I think they play a lot of soft coverage keeping everything in front of them.

Austin Ekeler had his best-receiving game of the season the last time he faced Philadelphia, posting 8 catches for 89 yards. The Eagles will be focused on limiting Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown down the field, opening up more short-yardage opportunities. Additionally, the Eagles lost a starting linebacker and will be focused on the legs of Jayden Daniels. Every rush for Daniels is a loss for the Eagles, considering he led the league in EPA generated on scrambles, they would much rather he checked down to Ekeler out of the backfield.

He’s over this number in both 2 playoff games thus far with 26 and 40 receiving yards in the playoffs. They have been leading in both games, decreasing his receiving snaps, but this could be his highest usage game of the postseason. Ekeler has flat-out looked better than Brian Robinson to end the season, and he’s seen more than 50% of postseason snaps with even more room to improve.

Even considered Jayden Daniels's completions because I think we see a lot of short passing forced in this one. While Ertz has had some tougher stylistic matchups against man coverage-heavy teams, he even benefits from a better matchup against the Eagles. He’s over this number in 3 of his last 4 games including last week, and 1 of 2 against the Eagles this year.

Washington just lost Sam Cosmi on the offensive line and I don’t expect the Eagles to blitz at all, they should play soft and keep everything in front of them. Washington plays no-huddle at a league-high rate and loves to get up to the line of scrimmage and complete those quick short-yardage passes, which Ertz should benefit from. In an effort to take downfield guys like Dyami Brown and Terry McLaurin out of the game, there should be opportunities underneath for guys like Ertz. The Eagles allowed 5 receptions to Tucker Kraft and 7 to Tyler Higbee in the playoffs.

Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards/Jayden Daniels 40+ rush yards -120

I think both of these guys base numbers got bet a little bit out of range, but I do see some value in taking alternate numbers for both of these star players. Jayden Daniels has been fantastic when he can call his own number this year, leading the NFL in scramble yards, and EPA on scrambles this season. While that volume is always going to be there, Daniels has gone from 5 designed runs per game to 8.5 in the postseason. They really can't get anything going with either of their running backs, and Daniels needs to be a big part of anything that happens on the ground.

Travis Kelce has 14 consecutive playoff games with 70+ receiving yards and has proven to be one of the most consistent weapons in football. While he has clearly lost a step in terms of athleticism, he still has amazing chemistry with Mahomes and will continue to be his first read in the biggest moments. It just took one playoff game for a classic Travis Kelce performance last week, and Im expecting more heavy usage In what should be an even more pass-heavy gamescript.

Risk 0.6u to win 0.5u -120 FD, -129 DK, -130 CZR

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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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