NBA Player Prop Bets: Klay Thompson, King Slayer

Apr 07, 2023

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Including Friday, we only have three more regular season slates in the NBA until the play-in tournament starts on Tuesday. A number of teams have already ruled their starters out, while there is a finite list of teams with something to play for. To aid your betting process, I have included a list below of what’s on the line. My favorite player props for the slate are outlined below as well.

Full playoff scenarios updated through games of Thursday, April 6.

Note: Detailed scenarios for the Western Conference 5-9 seeds will be posted on Saturday after Friday night's games. pic.twitter.com/tGjxuvpkPr

— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) April 7, 2023

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.

Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (April 7, 2023)

Klay Thompson Over 4.5 3-Pointers Made (+105 at DraftKings)

The Warriors are one of the few teams on the slate with something to play for, as they have the potential to move up as high as the No. 5 seed, but also drop as low as the No. 9 seed, so they’ll actively be looking to avoid the play-in tournament.

This should afford Thompson and the other starters a full allotment of minutes, despite the wide 9.5-point spread. That spread, too, is far from a sure thing, as we’ve seen the Warriors struggle on the road time and time again, limping their way to a record of 8-30 straight up and a league-worst 9-29-0 record against the spread as the away team.

A date with the Kings is a favorable one for Thompson, who comes into this game having hit five or more threes in five consecutive games. On the season, the Kings rank 24th in defensive rating (116.0) and surrender the 10th-most threes per game (12.5), having allowed 13.3 per game over their last three games. While this Kings team will be a shell of itself, given the likelihood that the starters rest, this will actually help Thompson even more. If Davion Mitchell draws the start in a scenario where De’Aaron Fox is ruled out, this would make Steph Curry’s matchup significantly more difficult, which could naturally funnel more volume Thompson’s way.

Take advantage of this prop while it’s still plus-money.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.05 units.