NBA Player Prop Bets: Make The Sharp(e) Play

Mar 31, 2023

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The NBA is showing us bettors no mercy on Friday, rolling out a 13-game mega-slate before a weekend of hoops and a Monday off. With playoff races in full effect and other teams shutting down starters, things are bound to get messy. My three favorite player props for the slate are outlined below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.

Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.

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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 31, 2023)

James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (+100 at DraftKings)

Part of the reason that the 76ers have experienced arguably their best year in the Joel Embiid era is the adaptation of the role that James Harden has showcased. He’s always been an elite passer, one of the best in the league even. That said, he’s fully embraced his role as a facilitator first and the primary table-setter for this Sixers team.

On the season overall, only Tyrese Haliburton (19.8) has averaged more potential assists per game than Harden (17.4), and no player in the entire league has averaged more assists per game (10.9) than Harden. He returned from injury with a 12-assist performance on 14 potential assists and while that level of efficiency likely won’t keep up, we can also expect the potential to rise back to the norm a bit to offset a potential efficiency drop.

He draws a difficult matchup on Friday against the Raptors and will likely see a lot of OG Anunoby (if the Raptors opt to not use him on Embiid), which should lead Harden to defer more than he already does and open up assist opportunities to his other teammates on offense. At plus money, this is a massive value.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1 unit.