NBA Player Prop Bets: The Process Punishes the Glass

Feb 23, 2023

NBA Player Prop Bets (February 23, 2023)

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Was it nice to have a break from the daily grind? Yes, but it's nice to be back and I'm looking forward to the rest of the season and playoffs. With recharged batteries, we look at tonight’s slate with favorable matchups around and still some projection to be done after so much movement around the trade deadline. That is the focus of today’s props.

Check out all the tools 4for4 has to aid in your daily prep. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well and make sure to get involved in Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable Thursday.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (February 23, 2023)

Joel Embiid Over 11.5 Rebounds (+120 at Caesars)

While Joel Embiid has not hit this number at a clip that would necessarily require a bet, the matchup against a short-handed Grizzlies team is too good to ignore.

Embiid has only gone over this number in three of his last six games and is averaging 10.8 rebounds on 20.0 chances in those games while upping his rebounds average from 9.8 in 2022 to 10.7 in 2023. Memphis provides a positive matchup on a few fronts for the Sixers' big man. The spread suggests this will be a close game, even with the issues the Grizzlies have had on the road, and in games in 2023 when Joel Embiid gets at least 35 minutes, he is averaging 11.9 rebounds.

Memphis has been missing Steven Adams plenty, allowing the third-most rebounds to centers over the last two weeks, and went from one of the best rebounding teams overall to one of the worst. In the previous two weeks, the Grizzlies are 27th in offensive and defensive rebound rates, whether it's Xavier Tillman or Brandon Clarke starting for Adams. The ability of Jaren Jackson Jr. to stay on the court enough to help on the glass is diminished with the likelihood he ends up in foul trouble with Embiid being so adept at drawing fouls and Jackson's inability to avoid fouling.

While the number is higher than Embiid’s averages, considering the matchup and the juice, it is a play.

Risk: 1 unit on Caesars to win 1.2 units. (Playable to +100)