NBA Player Prop Bets: Trey Murphy Lives Up to his Name

Mar 06, 2023

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With an abnormally busy Sunday, the Monday slate is not what it has been but that does not mean there is a lack of plays. Injury fallout and stylistic tendencies are the focus of the props selected from today’s slate.

Check out all the tools 4for4 has to aid in your daily prep. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props, and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well, and make sure to get involved in the Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable start to the week.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 6, 2023)

Trey Murphy Over 2.5 Threes (+110 at DraftKings)

Through all the injury issues for the Pelicans this season, Trey Murphy was a mainstay in the starting lineup until Josh Richardson was acquired, moving Murphy to the bench. With Richardson out, Murphy can return to his higher-volume role with the starters.

When starting this season, Murphy averages over 30 minutes per game, and when Murphy reached that threshold in 2023, he has gone nine and eight to the over on this prop. The other filter to throw in is when Murphy plays 30 minutes and gets at least 10 shots. He has gotten 10 or more shots in 13 of the 17 he’s started this year, and in those, he has gone over nine times, converting at a nice 69% clip. Murphy has also gone over this prop in five of his last seven when starting.

New Orleans is in Sacramento, where the Kings are allowing the most threes to SFs over the last two weeks and the second most over the last month. With the current lack of shooting for the Pelicans, they are going to rely on Murphy to space the floor, meaning a higher percentage of his shots will likely be coming from behind the line versus earlier in the season. With all the focus on Ingram, McCollum, and crashing off the corners, Murphy should have not only a good number of opportunities but a higher average quality opportunity at that.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.1 units. (Playable to -110)