NBA Player Prop Bets: Walker, Utah Rebounder

Feb 25, 2023

NBA Player Prop Bets (February 25, 2023)

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A smaller slate on deck with six-night games to work through. All of the props today are related to matchup-specific plays that have become attackable due to injury or roster change from the deadline. While the samples are smaller than usually preferred, if the results match the logic that would be assumed with the change in circumstance, it can bring more credence to the results.

Check out all the tools 4for4 has to aid in your daily prep. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well and make sure to get involved in Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable start to the weekend.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (February 25, 2023)

Walker Kessler Over 11.5 Rebounds (-110 at BetMGM)

The Jazz host the Spurs tonight and while San Antonio has been a mark for centers most of the season, that has only been exacerbated since the deadline.

Since trading Jakob Poeltl to the Raptors, the Spurs have allowed the most rebounds and most points to centers. Zach Collins and Gorgui Dieng do not provide much muscle on the inside for the Spurs and Walker Kessler has taken more proving his value defensively and on the glass since Utah’s deadline moves.

With Mike Conley being dealt to Minnesota, there is no consistent pick-and-roll ball handler for Kessler to play off of, leaving him to be more inconsistent offensively in terms of shots and points. On the glass, however, since the deadline, Kessler is averaging 12.2 rebounds on 22.8 rebounding chances and has gone over this number three times in five games. With Kessler’s minutes going up due to his impact on defense, that has raised the floor on his rebounding as well. In 11 games this season where Kessler has played 29+ minutes, he has gone over this prop eight times and averaged 13.5 rebounds.

Having the line at 11.5 should indicate the market thinks the Jazz will win this game by a wide margin and Kessler will not play his full allotment of minutes. Even so, Kessler has played 32+ minutes in four out of five games since the deadline. even if he losses a few minutes in the fourth, this prop is still very much in range.

Risk: 1.1 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit. (Playable to -125)