The 10 Biggest Mistakes in NFL Survivor Pools

A survivor pool seems like a straightforward thing to win. Just pick one winner each week, sounds simple, doesn’t it? Well, it’s not. All it takes is one wrong move throughout the season and you are eliminated. So, let’s look at the 10 biggest mistakes in NFL survivor pools.

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1. Betting with Your Heart

We’ve all been there. Our favorite team is starting to turn the corner, so we decide this is the week they finally rise and come through as the heavy underdog. Avoid this feeling. While there is no better feeling than seeing your hometown team come through when you are in a bind, it’s tough to be objective and know when to take them.

2. Jumping on the Bandwagon

Like number one, this one is a matter of picking with your heart and not your brain. We see it all the time during the NCAA March Madness tournament. People fall in love with “Cinderella” and simply overestimate the talent of that team. We see a young upstart team rattle off a few midseason wins against lower-level competition at home and suddenly they are the trendy pick against a Super Bowl contender on the road. Momentum in sports isn’t real. Every play and every game is independent of one another. Just because a team overperformed last week and squeaked out a win doesn’t mean they have it in them to pull off the upset this week.

3. Playing for Now and Not Considering the Future

This is a mistake many first-timers make. They want so badly to not be the first person out that they simply take the biggest favorite on the board every week. While the heavy favorites often come through, every year without fail the majority of participants will be eliminated by heavy favorites losing. In addition to this, you should consider looking down the road. If one team is picked to win most weeks, while another team is only picked to win this week, your best bet is to go with the team that you won’t want to use again later. So, take the one-time use team now, and save the flexible team for later when options are limited.

4. Not Factoring in Ownership

Another reason to not always take the easiest team is ownership percentage. While taking the easy pick can allow you to survive, it inevitably allows you to survive with more participants still alive in the pool. There is no better feeling than seeing half of your pool eliminated by a major upset while you are sitting pretty with a secondary option. My personal favorite is to pick a team on Thursday Night Football. These teams are typically less chosen and give you the benefit of knowing the result before the rest of the games begin. It’s a great feeling to know you’ve survived the week before anyone else has even played a game.

5. Ignoring the Odds

The Vegas lines make money for a reason, the Vegas bookmakers know their football. Don’t get too cute. A team is a 14-point underdog on the road for a reason. Sure, miracles do happen and on any given Sunday any team can beat any other team, thinking it and pretending you are smarter than the oddsmakers is a surefire way to lose. Vegas lines can move and be exploited but don’t make a habit of going way off the board as far as game lines and point spreads. If you are deadest on going against the line, do it in a more marginal situation. A great spot to take a chance is on a team that is only a marginal underdog on the road. This line would indicate that they are likely the better team but are laying points because they are on the road.

6. Playing Too Many Underdogs

Again, the recurring theme is overthinking things and getting too cute. Everyone loves the feeling of intellectual superiority they get when their 20-point underdog comes through in the clutch. Sadly, as fun as these situations prove to be, they are few and far between. Mixing in the occasional underdog is inevitably a risk you must take once you run out of sure bets but use these options few and far between. After all, there’s a reason they are underdogs.

7. Ignoring Rules & Format

This is perhaps the most important mistake to avoid of all. The first thing you should be doing is checking all settings.
Pool size is the first factor. The larger the pool, the longer you should expect to play. This means you will have to plan further and be far more strategic with your team selection. In a smaller pool, you can get away with simply living week to week in hopes of a quick finish.

Strikes allowed is the next factor. While it is rare to find a league that allows a strike, it is carte blanche to take risks if you are in one. Simply pick risky teams with upside until you burn through your early strikes and then play it safe with your last strike.

Double-pick weeks is the final factor. In larger pools that are expected to go deep into the season, many times you will be required to make two picks per week in the later weeks. This is huge as you will need to plan out twice as many viable teams late in the season.

8. Not Checking for Injuries & Weather

A critical mistake players can make is checking the odds early and not double-checking as we move closer to game time. Many times, a massive injury can occur to a critical player that will dramatically change the outcome of the game. No one likes picking a 10-point favorite only to find out they lost their starting quarterback on Saturday and became a huge underdog. The same can be said of the weather. Dome teams specifically tend to fare worse in extreme weather circumstances. So, check back early and often for anything that could dramatically change the outcome of the game. This is most critical if you have chosen a team in one of the United Kingdom games that can kick off at 6:00 a.m. on the West Coast. A simple mistake, that can be easily avoided.

9. Ignoring Travel & Schedule Conflicts

Jet lag is a thing. It can be used to help exploit NFL matchups. It’s not an uncommon occurrence to see a true contender fly from the East Coast across the country to face an underdog West Coast opponent. These often lead to letdown games where the East Coast team just doesn’t have their A game. This can be even more detrimental if the team is a divisional rival or must fly from warm weather to cold weather. To make matters worse, the East to West Coast trip can be a kiss of death in the event the trip has to be made in a short week. So, avoid teams flying across the country, into bad weather, on short rest against a divisional underdog. It can create the perfect storm for a huge upset.

10. Overvaluing the Divisional Underdog

The prevailing thought among survivor pool players is that you should avoid divisional games. Many feel that the spread means nothing and that these games should be treated like the Wild West. This is not the case though in most cases. There is no indication to support that an underdog is more likely to win in a divisional matchup, often it’s the exact opposite as division rivals tend to know their opponents better and be better prepared. If you want to take a small underdog in a divisional game, go for it! However, don’t pick a huge underdog just because it’s a divisional game and they could pull out the upset.