4 Tight Ends Who Had Outlier Touchdown Seasons in 2022

Jul 13, 2023

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In the final article of this four-part series, I will discuss tight ends that overperformed and underperformed in the touchdown column based on their volume in 2022. The basis for this analysis is touchdown expectation. For each position, I evaluated touchdown rates from various points on the field and calculated expected touchdowns for every player in the league. A full rundown of the methodology can be found in the quarterback article of this series.

More 2022 Touchdown Outliers: QB | RB | WR

The following table outlines scoring rates for tight end targets from each line of scrimmage:

TE TD Rates Based on Field Position, 2020–2022
Line Of Scrimmage	Touchdown Rate
1–49	0.1%
50–41	0.9%
40–31	2.7%
30–21	6.3%
20–16	13.7%
15–11	18.4%
10–6	31.9%
5–1	54.2%

Since 2019, eight tight ends have scored at least two touchdowns below expectation—seven players in that group saw their touchdown numbers increase the following year by an average of 2.7 scores. Of the eight tight ends that scored at least two touchdowns over expectation, six had fewer touchdowns the next season and the sample saw their total drop by an average of 1.5 scores.

After calculating each tight end’s touchdown expectation (minimum 40 targets) and comparing that number to the actual touchdowns that they generated, we can get an idea of which tight ends scored more or less often than they should have and, in turn, potential surprise studs or duds in 2023.