The 7 Biggest Steals of the NFL Draft – Fantasy Football Edition

NFL teams no doubt spent countless hours researching, studying, and agonizing over the incoming college prospects, and just like that, within three days, the event is over. However, as quickly as it goes in comparison to the preparation time put in, the consequences of draft weekend are monumental. The future of NFL franchises is shaped, jobs are lost, and dreams are made. While there is no shortage of NFL Draft grades, here we’ll be looking at some of the biggest steals as it pertains strictly to fantasy football.

More 2023 NFL Draft Content: Impact First-Round Rookies | 18 Impact Rookies Past Round 1 | NFC Draft Grades | AFC Draft Grades | Winners & Losers Rounds 2-7 | Player Profiles |

Landing spot can have such a big impact on fantasy football and we know, every single year there are players that fall further than what we were expecting in the NFL Draft. This year was no different and we’ll be identifying some of the players who represented the best value to their respective NFL teams and what their fantasy football value looks like in 2023.

Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Addison was a player who, prior to the NFL combine, ranked as the No. 1 receiver on a lot of draft boards despite his smaller stature. His college production, both at Pittsburgh and USC this past season provide plenty of statistical reasons for why he deserved such high praise. However, a lackluster Combine showing caused Addison’s stock to fall. With his somewhat lacking speed and agility scores, combined with his small size, questions began to form about what his production would look like in the NFL. Those concerns caused him to be the fourth receiver off the board, but the landing spot could not have been any better.

While it’s certainly understandable to question his size, you cannot question what he was able to accomplish in three years in college. Despite being a true freshman, Addison still put together an excellent season in 2020. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), he finished with 89 targets, a 22% target share, and an incredibly impressive 2.2-yard per route run average.

He burst onto the scene in 2021 when he finished fourth in the country during the regular season with 1,353 yards. He also ranked in the top-12 in targets and receptions and scored four more receiving touchdowns than any other FBS receiver. His target share increased to 28% and his yard per route run route climbed to an elite, 3.1 clip. He did most of his damage from the slot, running 80% of his routes from that location, but no matter, Addison looked like a star in the making.

Following that 2021 campaign, Addison transferred to USC where he would catch passes from the presumed No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft, Caleb Williams. A mid-season ankle injury didn’t allow Addison to put up the same kind of gaudy stats he did while at Pittsburgh, but it didn’t impact his efficiency. He still finished with the same 3.1-yard-per-route run average he had the year before. The more impressive thing, however, was that USC deployed Addison as a full-time outside receiver. He ran just 29% of his routes from the slot and still dominated. That should’ve helped quell some concerns about his size.

Landing in Minnesota is a dream scenario for Addison and fantasy managers. He’ll get to work opposite superstar, Justin Jefferson, which will provide him with a lot of man-to-man coverage opportunities. Defenses will also need to worry about T.J. Hockenson in the middle of the field. Adam Thielen is no longer in Minnesota, having signed with the Panthers this offseason, which leaves the No. 2 receiver spot completely up for grabs. Fantasy managers should be expecting Addison to claim that role and he should be a flex-worthy starter for Week 1.

New Vikings WR Jordan Addison in #ReceptionPerception 👀



- 71.3% success rate vs. man coverage

- 80% success vs man

- Crazy high success rates on the slant, curl, dig



Perfect NFL flanker/slot receiver. pic.twitter.com/vSgBAgNNOl

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 28, 2023

With the downright dreadful defensive performance the Vikings displayed in 2022, it’s very possible they’ll be in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season, which is an excellent recipe for fantasy success. Kirk Cousins is wildly underrated and has averaged 4,344 yards and 32 touchdowns in the past three seasons. It shouldn’t be a surprise if Addison ends up being the best rookie receiver this year for fantasy football.

Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders

Michael Mayer, for the longest time, was viewed as the consensus No. 1 tight end and there’s reason upon reason upon reason for that. He's been one of the very best tight ends in the country over the last three years. Despite being a freshman in 2020, that didn't stop him from being an immediate producer at Notre Dame. He put an absurd 17% target share as a freshman and displayed an all-around skillset that made him look like a first-round lock. That 2020 season was just a glimpse of what he would do over the next two seasons for the Fighting Irish.

Over the past two seasons, Mayer had a total of 202 targets, 138 receptions, 1,649 yards, and 16 touchdowns. For a tight end, in college no less, these numbers are sensational. This past season, according to SIS, Mayer had a 2.6-yard-per-route run average, which ranked third among all tight ends. He was Notre Dame's leading receiver and commanded a 31% target share, displaying his ability as a tight end who can be an integral part of a team's passing attack.

While he's taken a bit of a hit during the predraft process for not being the same level of athlete as Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, and Darnell Washington, he showed an ability to make plays after the catch in college. In 2022, he averaged a broken or missed tackle on 21% of his receptions. This ranked sixth among tight ends according to SIS and was even ahead of Washington.

One area of his game that won't directly lead to fantasy football value, but will indirectly, is his blocking ability. Mayer enters the league as arguably the best all-around tight end. Mayer recorded a blown rushing block on just 0.5% of his attempts, which was one of the best marks among tight ends. His ability to help his team not only in the passing game but in the run game as well, is going to ensure that he stays on the field. Not surprisingly, the Raiders seem especially high on him.

GM Dave Ziegler said the #Raiders tried to trade back into the first round last night to get TE Michael Mayer.

"He was one of the top 15 players on our board."

— Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) April 29, 2023

The Raiders traded Darren Waller away this offseason, which gives him a clear pathway to the starting job in Las Vegas. While the team did sign Jakobi Meyers from the Patriots, fantasy managers should be expecting Mayer to be a focal point of their offense. He's unlikely to finish inside the top-12 this season, but he's likely going to be one of the better TE2 streamers all year.

Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers

Jonathan Mingo made a late push up draft boards following an explosive combine performance where he ended up scoring a 9.87 on the Relative Athletic Scores (RAS). As you can see below, Mingo is an exceptional athlete in just about any testing area.

Jonathan Mingo is a WR prospect in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 9.86 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 44 out of 3011 WR from 1987 to 2023. https://t.co/LbCjhpXaT3 pic.twitter.com/DOPCo1G1Ke

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 8, 2023

While Mingo never had a statistically packed collegiate season, it’s fair to wonder what might have been had he not gotten injured early in 2021. In his first three games of the season that year, he produced games of eight receptions, 113 yards, and two touchdowns, and a second game with six receptions, 136 yards, and one score in back-to-back weeks.

For fantasy managers chasing collegiate stats, Mingo is unlikely to catch your eye after finishing with just 79 targets, 48 receptions, 808 yards, and five touchdowns in his senior season, but there’s a lot more to it than meets the eye.

According to SIS, Mingo finished the 2022 year with a 23% target share, which was tied for 21st among receivers. While his overall numbers appear lackluster, it’s important to remember that Ole Miss didn’t pass the ball very much or very effectively this last season.

One area where Mingo shined was what he did after the catch. His broken and missed tackle per reception rate was 24%, which was tied for the 17th best. He also averaged 7.5 yards after the catch per reception, which ranked eighth. His size and strength become a nightmare for opposing cornerbacks to take on.

The depth chart in Carolina with just Thielen and D.J. Chark, leaves plenty of room for Mingo to climb. With rookie, Bryce Young set to start behind center, fantasy managers shouldn’t be expecting immediate production out of the rookie receiver, but he could be someone who can provide an Amon-Ra St. Brown-lite type of second half.

Ideally, Carolina will use him out of the slot where Young can get the ball into Mingo’s hands early and often and allow him to use his strength after the catch to gobble up yardage. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised if he finishes the season as the No. 1 receiver in Carolina.

Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants

After winning the Bilentnikoff Award this past season for being the best collegiate receiver, it sure was surprising to see Jalin Hyatt fall to the third round. It seems hard to believe a player could win that award, finish the season with 1,267 yards with 18 touchdowns, light up the Alabama defense for 207 yards and five scores, and still end up in the third round, but that’s exactly what happened. That makes him one of the better value picks in the NFL Draft and a great selection for the receiver-needy New York Giants team.

Some of the concerns with Hyatt revolved around the “gimmicky” offense that Tennessee ran and that he had secured just 38 catches for 467 yards in the two years prior. Those are reasonable concerns, but in the third round, there’s plenty more upside than risk.

Hyatt walks into a very busy receiver room, but one that doesn’t present with much high-end talent. The Giants re-signed Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Isaiah Hodgins. In free agency, they brought in Parris Campbell and Jamison Crowder, on top of trading for tight end Darren Waller. They’ll also welcome back from injury, former 2022 second-round pick, Wan’Dale Robinson. As you can see, a whole bunch of bodies, but outside of Waller, very few proven NFL producers. That’ll give Hyatt a chance to get on the field early and often.

Last year, the Giants' passing game was one of the most anemic in the NFL. They were tied for the seventh-lowest yard-per-attempt average and finished with just 17 touchdowns, which was tied for the sixth-lowest. Daniel Jones, Brian Daboll, and this entire passing attack were in need of some much-needed juice, and with Hyatt, they certainly got that.

Jalin Hyatt had a reputation as a deep threat in Knoxville, averaging 18.9 yards per reception in 2022.



He validated that reputation at the 2023 NFL Combine, reaching the 3rd-fastest top speed (24.29 MPH) of the 208 players who were tracked during the forty-yard dash. pic.twitter.com/HA527junxA

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) April 25, 2023

Hyatt finished his 2022 collegiate season with a 3.5-yard per route run average, which was the second-best number among receivers last year. He also recorded a 13.9-yard per-target average, which was the best in the FBS. Hyatt was an exceptional downfield target and he's got the speed to immediately become one of the better downfield threats in the NFL.

While he's unlikely to become a consistent starter for fantasy purposes because of the Giants' likely low-volume passing attack, he could become a quality addition in any best-ball league. He's going to have a lot of boom or bust nature to his game in 2023, but there's an avenue for Hyatt to make noise as a rookie and someone who could provide week-winning potential, but also someone who comes with more weekly risk than most.

Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears

Roschon Johnson played second-fiddle to Bijan Robinson the last two seasons, which has caused some to overlook him. However, Johnson is a very good prospect in his own right. Last year, he averaged 4.28 yards after contact per attempt, which was top-10 among running backs. He's not at the same level of athlete as his former Texas teammate, but he's a big, strong runner. Another aspect of Johnson's game that shouldn't be overlooked is his pass protection. His ability to keep his quarterback clean will help get him on the field in Chicago. As part of his rookie profile through SIS, they had this to say about Johnson,

"In the pass game, Johnson shines as a pass blocker. He has the strength, toughness, and desire to put his face into the A and B gaps and pick up blitzers. He also does a very good job chipping the edge and finding work on his way out into routes.

The Bears' backfield currently consists of just Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman, which is the definition of an ambiguous backfield. Last year, Chicago had one of the better rushing attacks, although it should be noted, a lot of that had to do with quarterback Justin Fields. However, there is a clear pathway for Johnson to become the primary ball carrier for Chicago sooner than later.

Due to Robinson's existence in Texas, Johnson was never asked to be the man. The downside of that is that he was never afforded the opportunity to truly showcase what he can do, but the positive is that he's got very little tread on his tires. He's been a very efficient runner over his last four years at Texas. Over the past three years, he's averaged a yard per carry average higher than 5.5 every season and has averaged more than 3.9 yards after contact per attempt each season. That's incredibly efficient and that hard-nosed running style could very quickly endear him to his new coaching staff.

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

Chase Brown was one of the better running backs in college last year and he ended up falling into a terrific situation after being drafted in Cincinnati. He averaged 137 rushing yards, which was the third-best mark in college. However, it wasn't just a volume-based performance, Chase displayed plenty of skill as a runner, as well. According to SIS, he averaged 10 broken tackles per 100 attempts (15th-best among running backs) and 10 missed tackles per 100 attempts (13th-best). He also averaged 3.0 yards after contact per attempt, which ranked 17th. He also tested as one of the best running backs at the combine.

Chase Brown RAS so far.https://t.co/wbLHzHGizz #RAS pic.twitter.com/9yKRcPWFaX

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 5, 2023

He has the speed and agility to get to the corner and hit the home run, which is something Cincinnati hasn't had in the backfield for the past few years. He also displayed some positive skills in the passing game, averaging 1.7 yards per route run, which ranked eighth among running backs. This past offseason, the Bengals lost Samaje Perine in free agency, who primarily operated as the team's third-down back and that's a role Brown could potentially fill as the season rolls along. From his rookie profile by SIS, they had this to say about his passing game role,

"Brown looks comfortable lining out wide and shows a fairly developed route tree. The vast majority of his routes are quick, short routes, but his footwork provides promise for developing a more complete route tree. He has worked to improve his hands, and looked much more comfortable this past season, although he does not pluck the ball from the air. He looks to run before he has the ball on occasion which causes some bobbles. Brown shows good effort in pass protection and can handle his own against blitzing DBs and LBs. It's another area where he has shown drastic improvement over his career as his blitz recognition, form at point of attack, and strength are much improved."

Brown was an excellent value pick for the Bengals at a position of need, as well. It shouldn't be surprising if Brown works his way into a role similar to the one that Perine held last year. That'll give him low-level flex appeal in full-PPR leagues and he becomes one of the best handcuff running backs in the league.

Zach Evans, Los Angeles Rams

This was one of my favorite picks of the NFL Draft. Zach Evans is one of the best home run hitters at the running back position. He offers game-breaking speed and finished his collegiate career with a ridiculous 6.9 yards per carry average. I was surprised he lasted as long as he did and when his name was finally announced, it was to a team where he could end up being the primary rusher by the end of the season.

The Zach Evans Vision/Decision-Making Thread #NFLDraft #GoDeep https://t.co/uSBdFtXd6l pic.twitter.com/Vw3SmR8MQX

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) March 17, 2023

He is absolutely electric out of the backfield. Despite getting just 144 carries, he still managed to record 33 attempts that went for 10 yards or more. That's an incredibly impressive rate of 23%. If you gave him the ball four times, chances are he was hitting one for 10 yards. Despite not being a big back – he weighed in at just 202 pounds – he still managed to break 15 tackles per 100 attempts, which was eighth-best among running backs. He also averaged 3.5 yards after contact per attempt.

He's struggled a bit with injuries throughout college, which is likely one of the reasons he fell, but there's no doubt, he brings a whole lot of speed and explosiveness to any team's backfield. It just so happens that's something the Rams' backfield desperately needs. Cam Akers, while he performed admirably in his return from his torn Achilles still looked like more of an early down plodder. He's a guy that's likely to get what's blocked, but not all that much more. Evans, on the other hand, has the potential to take it to the house with every touch.

Fantasy managers should expect Akers to lead the way early for the Rams, but it shouldn't be surprising if Evans, as the season rolls along, works himself into an even 50/50 split with Akers or even becomes the 1A to Akers' 1B. Evans has the potential to become a flex-level starter in fantasy football this season and should anything happen with Akers, he'd have RB2 value.