7 Players Going at Discounts in Salary Cap Drafts

Jul 26, 2023

Bryan Bennett/Getty Images

Identifying potential league-winning players takes both a good amount of research and a good amount of luck. Sometimes you have to bet on which teams and players will see positive regression in their stats year on year, other times you're caught making a choice about which talented young asset seems the most likely to break out this season. In some cases, however, the market does the work for you. Year after year there are valuable players who are drafted closer to their floor than their ceiling, and you can immediately boost your roster by snagging them on draft night.

Other Salary Cap Articles: How to Approach Salary Cap Drafts | Studs and Scrubs | Striking at Value in Salary Cap Drafts

In my Studs and Scrubs article, I wrote about the importance of finding cheap players with high potential, but there’s value in grabbing guys whose draft price simply doesn’t match their prior production. You may not see them mentioned as much in offseason content, or if you do it may be as a fade or regression candidate, but that’s also what keeps their price low. In 2023, there are seven players that stick out with draft prices notably lower than their production would imply. All historical and projected player values are for 12-team PPR leagues, but the takeaways apply to all league settings, and you can check your own league's prices with the 4for4 price tool.

Josh Allen

All offseason I've heard chatter that the top quarterbacks had been pushed too far up draft boards and that it would be hard for them to mimic their 2022 value. But here's something to consider: Josh Allen just is and has been, that valuable. His current projected draft price puts him at $26, the third highest among QBs, but over the past three seasons, he's delivered values of $45, $48, and $50. And while a team's makeup can change drastically over the offseason, other than an April soundbite about running less dangerously there's nothing going on in Buffalo that screams that Allen's production should be significantly hampered coming into 2023.

It seems like a pretty safe bet that a healthy Josh Allen throws for 4,000 yards, runs for at least 500, and notches 40 total touchdowns. For his auction value to be this low would suggest one of three things: he's an injury risk, the market is too low on him, or his draft price was set by fortune tellers who see a lackluster season incoming. Based on his lack of injury history and our general skepticism of psychics, we can rule out the first and third options, leaving only the possibility that he's being underdrafted. When you can build your team around an early-round player who is also being undervalued, that player should immediately be a target for you on draft night.