College Football's Best Week 1 Bet
Welcome to the first full week of the college football season! My approach to college football focuses on using advanced data and analytics to try and exploit mismatches that I believe will give one team an advantage on the field. Last year was my first year writing and publicly posting picks, and I went 56-37 (60.2%).
I'm excited to bring my work to 4for4 as a college football betting analyst, and I hope to keep the wins coming. Let's enjoy a fantastic 2023 season!
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Boise State @ Washington
Washington -14 | O/U 58.5
Michael Penix and this Washington offense was one of the best in the entire country in 2022. The Huskies finished second in finishing drives, fifth in success rate, and were first in the entire country in limiting explosive plays. This prolific offense is led by Penix and an outstanding duo of receivers in Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan.
Penix threw for 4,641 yards and 31 touchdowns and was the eighth-highest-graded QB in the country last season. Odunze and McMillan were the prime benefactors of this aerial success, and each receiver accumulated over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns. The passing offense threw the ball at the eighth-highest rate in the country and finished fifth in passing success rate and 11th in EPA/pass. Washington also returns both starting tackles, who each received All-Pac-12 honors a season ago.
Penix and the Huskies are going up against a defense that was one of the best in the Group of 5 in 2022 but has been absolutely gutted by returning production. The Broncos lost both linebackers, but most importantly for a game against this offense, lost four of their five starting defensive backs. That much turnover in the secondary against Penix and Co. could make for a long night for Boise State.
On the other side of the ball, I have concerns about Boise’s offense. The Broncos struggled to start the season with Hank Bachmeier at QB and only averaged 22 points per game with him under center. That number exploded to 32.5 points per game after making the switch to freshman Taylen Green, who is a dynamic dual-threat weapon. However, that explosion was also thanks to Dirk Koetter taking over as offensive coordinator. Coetter retired, and the new OC wants to severely limit the amount of times Green scrambles out of the pocket, which won’t be a good thing for this offense.
Taylen Green isn’t meant to stay in the pocket. According to PFF, he had 11 turnover-worthy plays and only eight big-time throws a year ago and only once had a passing grade over 80.0. The other issue for Green is he will be without his best receiver for the entire 2023 season. Last year’s leading receiver, Latrell Caples, will miss the entire year with a leg injury.
Boise will have to lean on their two-headed monster at RB with George Holani and Ashton Jeanty. The duo combined for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. However, Washington’s defense is much better against the rush than they are against the pass. The Huskies ranked 24th in limiting explosives on the ground, 68th in EPA/rush, and only gave up 3.52 yards per carry, which was 25th best in the country. Washington returns a ton of production on defense, especially along the defensive line, where they return all four starters from last year. The star of the show is Bralen Trice, who led the entire country with 68 pressures a season ago. This unit should be able to slow down the Boise run game and get after Green when he has to drop back and throw the ball.
Lastly, I think Washington has a huge advantage in the coaching department in this game as well. There might not be a bigger fan of Kalen DeBoer than me, and I love everything he does on the sideline. Most importantly for us, he doesn’t take his foot off the gas and covers spreads. DeBoer is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games, including a 3-0 mark last year where the Huskies outscored their opponents 136 to 54.
I think Penix and the receivers carve up this secondary, and an experienced Washington defense bottles up the Broncos.
Pick: Washington -14 (-110) @ DraftKings
