Dallas Goedert Will Be One of the Most Consistent Fantasy Options in 2023

Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert fought against injuries again in the 2022 season, but as usual, they were minor setbacks. Prior to his November 14th shoulder injury, the now-28-year-old veteran was the TE4 in half-PPR fantasy leagues and was well on his way to yet another strong season at a weak position. This is despite being on an Eagles team that was more than happy to keep the ball on the ground, particularly when they had the lead.

Goedert would return to action in Week 16, would ease back into the offense, and was a strong spoke in the offensive wheel during the Eagles' playoff run. Though the team would eventually lose a nail-biter in Super Bowl 57, the tight end would contribute 16 receptions and a touchdown through the team’s three playoff games. Let’s take a look at the team and Goedert himself as we head towards the 2023 regular season and see if he remains in a situation to duplicate his success once again.

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Looking Back on the 2022 Season

As has been the norm over the course of Dallas Goedert’s five-year career in the NFL, the 2022 season had its ups and downs. When healthy, Goedert was the TE4 in half-PPR points per game (9.5), admirably filling his role on one of the more interesting offenses in the NFL. Sadly, nagging injuries would once again impact our ability to roll out his consistent production every week. The former South Dakota State Jackrabbit had missed eight full games over the previous three seasons but would come dangerously close to matching that number in 2022 alone.

In Week 3, a shin injury against the Washington Commanders cut a productive game short, while the bigger blow came in Week 10, once again against the Commanders; a shoulder injury that knocked him out for five full games and left him as an afterthought when he returned.

It’s worth pointing out that Gardner Minshew was throwing the ball, not Jalen Hurts. Not to mention, a two-week sample size is very small, but these were most people’s fantasy championships, and with slim pickings on the waiver wire, many people probably started him, particularly managers with IR slots.

Nonetheless, Goedert still had a very productive year yet again, and it wasn’t predicated on an unsustainable touchdown rate (see: Cole Kmet). Goedert ran a route on 88.5% of Philadelphia’s dropbacks through 10 full games in which he and Jalen Hurts were healthy, a mark that would have ranked first among all tight ends if extrapolated across an entire season. In terms of touchdown rate, Goedert’s 4.3% TD rate was below league average (5.8%), as was his red zone TD rate of 20.0% (league average: 29.8%).

Shockingly, if Dallas Goedert had fallen in for just two more touchdowns during the 2022 season, he would have finished as the TE3 in points per game and the TE7 in overall half-PPR points. This, despite missing 5.5 games.

Climbing a Narrow Target Tree

Dallas Goedert has two very large, very obvious roadblocks between him and the conversation for a top-three option at his position. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are two alpha wide receivers operating on the same team, with defined roles within the offense. Brown and Smith combined for nearly 56% of the team’s targets in the 2022 season. That is far and away the highest mark, even when compared against the other elite 1-2 punches in the league.

Possibly the easiest 1v1 comparison out of this group would be the Eagles and 49ers; recent history has seen them both favor the run, and they each have a talented tight end to complete the trio of high-level pass-catchers. While we could argue that George Kittle may be more talented than Dallas Goedert, the fact remains that his situation has also seen his target share get squeezed, much like Goedert’s.

Kittle’s receiver usage has steadily declined since his otherworldly 25.5% target share in 2018. A number that high was going to be nearly impossible to replicate, but it dropped to 21.6% in Brandon Aiyuk’s rookie season, followed by 20.6% in 2021 before settling into an 18.9% mark last season. It is very reasonable to assume that as long as A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are on the field, Goedert’s target share ceiling is in the 19-20% range, while it’s way more likely that he settles into that Kittle-esque 17-18%.

A Change in Gamescript

We’ve hit on the fact that Dallas Goedert’s role in the offense isn’t going to change in 2023, but what about the play style of said offense?

In 2022, the Eagles lead by at least four points on 53% of their total plays last year, a mark that easily doubled the NFL average of 24%. In this clearly positive game script, Eagles quarterbacks attempted 245 passes while the team ran 54% of the time, or 293 attempts. Compare that to all other game scripts (up by three points, tied, down by ten points, etc.), and we see that Philadelphia ran the ball on 46% of their plays, or 250 rushing attempts to 291 passing attempts.

While preseason forecasts ahead of 2022 had the Eagles with the easiest strength of schedule (and it turns out they indeed had the easiest SOS), the team ranks 13th in that metric heading into the 2023 season. It’s certainly no reason to panic for Eagles fans, but if they’re going to exceed their current Vegas win total of 10.5, it’s going to be a more difficult road this year than last.

This means the team will need to move the ball through the air more often than when they were comfortably sitting with a 4+ point lead week after week in 2022. In turn, a healthy Dallas Goedert with a 17-18% target share doesn’t sound all too shabby for fantasy production.

The Bottom Line

• Dallas Goedert had worse injury luck than he ever has in his career and still finished 2022 as the TE4 in half-PPR points per game prior to his November 14th shoulder injury, TE5 by the end of the year.
• With two alpha wide receivers sharing the field with him on every snap, the ceiling for Goedert is, unfortunately, capped compared to the elite options at the position.
• The Philadelphia Eagles are more or less guaranteed to play in more close games in the 2023 season, which will raise the floor for each of their big-three pass catchers.
• According to current Underdog ADP, Dallas Goedert is coming off the board as the TE6 at the end of the sixth round, which is exactly where we have him ranked. Goedert could stand to be the most consistent producer at the position outside the top-three options of Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson. With a little better touchdown luck, he can provide spike weeks but don’t expect more than a few high-volume games.