Fantasy Football Debate: Bijan Robinson vs. Saquon Barkley
Hyped rookie Bijan Robinson and New York stalwart Saquon Barkley are two running back targets of many fantasy football drafters in 2023 on Yahoo! leagues. In this debate, 4for4's Justin Edwards explains why he prefers Robinson while Nic Bodiford argues the Barkley side.
Read other player-specific analysis from the 4for4 staff: Player Profiles | RB Rankings
The Case for Saquon Barkley
Nic: Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson enters his rookie season carrying an RB3, 1.07 average draft position (ADP), with New York Giants veteran running back Saquon Barkley hot on his heels as the RB4 at 1.09, per 4for4’s 12-Team, half-PPR Multi-Site ADP tool. Although Robinson is a promising prospect, Barkley’s voluminous role and superior offense give him an edge in 2023.
Few NFL running backs have access to high-volume workloads in all three facets of the game; early-down rushing, passing downs, and scoring position. Barkley is one such player, though, as evidenced by his top-five, RB1 finish in 2022. The team is only likely to increase Barkley’s workload in 2023, due to his hard-fought contract incentives. As long as New York earns a playoff berth, Barkley can earn an extra $303,000 for reaching each of the following performance thresholds: 1,350 rushing yards, 11 total touchdowns, and 65 receptions.
The table below ranks, in parentheses, Barkley’s 2022 rushing data among 44 NFL running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts, 4for4’s NFL Player Stats Explorer.
Saquon Barkley 2022 Rushing Data
| NFL RB Rushing | Team Rush Att. % | Rush Att./Game | Inside 5-Yd Rush % | Inside 5-Yd Rush | HVT/Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 58.5% (No. 8) | 17.4 (No. 5) | 57.1% (t-No. 14) | 16 (t-No. 5) | 4.9 (No. 6) |
The table below ranks, in parentheses, Barkley’s 2022 receiving data among 29 NFL running backs with at least 40 targets and his snap data among 43 NFL running backs with at least 30 snaps per game.
Saquon Barkley 2022 Receiving & Snap Data
| NFL RB Rec. | Tgt/Game | Rec/Game | Team Tgt % | EZ Tgt % | Routes/Game | TPRR | 3rd Down % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 4.8 (No. 10) | 3.6 (No. 8) | 16.7% (No. 6) | 7.1 (t-No. 7) | 19.5 (No. 8) | 25.0% (No. 15) | 76.0% (No. 6) |
Matt Breida, Gary Brightwell, James Robinson, and fifth-round rookie Eric Gray make up Barkley’s backfield touch competition. The 28-year-old Breida produced just 4.1 yards per rushing attempt last year, the lowest of his career, while Brightwell uninspiringly earned just 40 combined rushing attempts and targets. Robinson nearly washed out of the league following his 2021 Achilles rupture and Gray lacks NFL-level top-end speed.
Robinson, though extremely talented, joins a crowded Atlanta backfield that finished second in rushing, averaging 160.6 rushing yards per game. Current No. 2 and No. 3 running backs Tyler Allgeier (4.9) and Cordarrelle Patterson (4.8) both ranked in the top 20 in yards per rushing attempt and in the top 12 in rushing yards over expectation per rushing attempt with 0.56 and 0.47 yards, respectively.
Robinson’s passing-game potential is also muddied by second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, whose 2.8 scramble attempts per game ranked top five among 47 NFL quarterbacks with at least 125 dropbacks. Ridder did maintain a top-six running back target rate (23.7%), but Patterson, a former wide receiver with a 25.0% targets per route run rate in 2022, will compete for opportunities.
New York proved efficient under first-year head coach Brian Daboll, averaging a mid-tier 334.7 scrimmage yards per game and a top-seven 30.0 seconds per-play speed, per 4for4’s NFL Team Stats Explorer. Atlanta conversely produced bottom-12 finishes in both categories, averaging 319.6 scrimmage yards per game and 30.9 seconds per play.
Barkley’s high-volume role as a member of Daboll’s fast-paced offense gives him a leg up on the promising yet hampered Robinson. Fantasy managers would do well to select Barkley with both his performance incentives and positional competition in mind, expecting another Half-PPR RB1 outcome.
The Case for Bijan Robinson
Justin: After two seasons of spending a huge amount of draft capital on tight end Kyle Pitts (fourth overall in 2020) and wide receiver Drake London (eighth overall in 2021), there was some consternation over whether or not the Falcons would spend yet another top-10 pick on the offensive skill position when there was such a big question mark at quarterback. The team was unwavering, though, making Bijan Robinson the seventh running back taken in the top 10 since the 2010 NFL Draft, as the high-capital running back strategy has fallen out of vogue in the pass-happy modern-day NFL.
The Falcons don't operate as a traditional, modern-day NFL offense, though. At least not since head coach Arthur Smith left the Titans to take over play-calling duties. According to 4for4's Team Stat Explorer, Atlanta ranked first in first-down run percentage and first in second-half trailing run percentage while also ranking second in run-pass option (RPO) percentage over the 2022 season. There is no reason to assume that offensive philosophy is going to flip on its head after the team spent such a premium pick on do-it-all Bijan Robinson. And, even if they did, Robinson is the type of back who will benefit from any offensive scheme that keeps him on the field.
In addition to leading the entire FBS with 104 missed tackles forced in his final year of college, he also finished ninth out of 47 qualifying running backs with 1.52 yards per route run, exemplifying his ability to get open with consistency. His 10.4 yards per target stretched over his career, paired with his 2022 6.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT), also hints towards his ability to run a full (running back) route tree, not unlike recent powerhouses such as Saquon Barkley or Tony Pollard.
Pair all of this with an offensive line that has ascended into a top-10 unit, and we're looking at a marriage that is very difficult to see failing. A combination consisting mostly of Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Caleb Huntley led the league with 5.3 yards per attempt on zone rushes in 2022. It's almost scary to think about what Robinson can do with this setup.
With the aforementioned Saquon Barkley heading into his sixth NFL season, we are getting an entirely new version of the New York Giants running back in Robinson, with fresh legs, at essentially the same draft cost. The elephant in the room between these two options is that Barkley has missed 20 games over the last four seasons, with most of that coming in 2020 when he suffered a torn ACL in Week 2. There is no guarantee we will get 17 full games out of Bijan Robinson, but there’s also no guarantee Barkley’s resurgent 2022 will not be a blip on the radar after we saw a sharp decline from him in 2021 after said torn ACL.
I am confident Barkley will have a good year despite a receiving room that saw the additions of Jalin Hyatt and Darren Waller. But Bijan Robinson is on a team completely devoid of receiving options after Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Robinson's downside outcome(s) remains higher than that of Barkley, making both his floor and ceiling more appealing than the veteran.
