Fantasy Football Debate: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Breece Hall

Rhamondre Stevenson and Breece Hall are two running back targets of many fantasy football drafters in 2023 on Yahoo! leagues. In this debate, 4for4's Justin Edwards explains why he prefers Stevenson while Nic Bodiford argues the Hall side.

Read other player-specific analysis from the 4for4 staff: Player Profiles | RB Rankings

The Case for Rhamondre Stevenson

Justin: Rhamondre Stevenson had quite an interesting rookie season, but that’s probably something we could have guessed would happen when a fantasy asset is in their first year with the New England Patriots. Taken with the 120th-overall pick, the former Oklahoma Sooner was projected as a possible plodding-style inside zone runner like Damien Harris or Sony Michel, two oft-injured pieces who were already on the team. Michel would eventually get traded, James White would miss most of the season due to a Week 3 injury, and even with multiple healthy scratches, Stevenson would fight the odds to deliver multiple usable fantasy weeks in the second half of the season, including 98 of his 133 carries coming after Week 10.

The 2022 offseason began with even more murkiness, as the team would select both Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris in the NFL Draft, but it turns out it really didn’t matter when looking at Stevenson’s bottom line. According to 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer, the incumbent back handled a majority of the team’s carries (52.1%) while operating in far too good of efficiency to pull him off the field, averaging 0.41 rushing yards over expected per carry (13th-best). Stevenson was a force to take down, ranking fourth in yards after contact per attempt and second in broken tackles per attempt.

The running style Stevenson had always employed made those numbers at least somewhat in most pundits’ range of outcomes. What was a shock was the running back’s 87 targets (third), 69 receptions (fourth), and 421 receiving yards (seventh) on the back of a well above-average 1.24 yards per route run. This translated to the fourth-highest target share at the position (17.3%) despite being out-snapped on passing downs by Ty Montgomery to begin the season.

Projecting him for even more usage in the passing game ahead of 2023 seems a little ridiculous, but there’s not a lot of reason to assume he is going to see a lot less usage. The team is running back the exact same running back depth chart as last year, with Montgomery, Strong Jr., and Harris filling in the slots behind him. There are rumors the team is looking for veteran help in free agency (namely, Leonard Fournette and Darrell Henderson), but one would assume that it is a direct reflection of the depth of the team, as the other options were either hardly ever used in the receiving game (Strong Jr., two games with eight or more routes ran), hardly used at all (Harris, 53 offensive snaps), or a cut candidate (Montgomery).

Stevenson should be involved in a more potent offense with an actual offensive coordinator coming into town (Bill O’Brien), just as Breece Hall should get a boost with a real quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) coming to his town. If we ignore Hall’s health from his ACL issue (as reports have been positive about him returning by Week 1), what we do have to worry about is him getting up-to-speed mentally with an offense that the veteran Hall of Fame quarterback is now running. Hall looks as if he will be on the PUP list through at least some of camp, and while returns from ACLs have luckily been more and more smooth through recent history, I am still concerned about the type of trust Rodgers historically has demanded with his skill position players.

Revisiting this debate during the middle of the season could very much feel like a toss-up. As it stands here in the preseason, I am more comfortable taking Rhamondre Stevenson with the possibility that it could take a couple of weeks for Breece Hall to truly start delivering to his full fantasy potential.

The Case for Breece Hall

Nic: New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson and the New York Jets’ Breece Hall currently offer drafters respective RB10, 3.01 and RB11, 3.03 average draft positions (ADP), per 4for4’s 12-team Multi-Site ADP tool. Stevenson finished 2022 as the Half-PPR RB10 overall and RB13 on a points-per-game basis. Hall finished well ahead of Stevenson in the latter category, stealing the RB8 per-game spot, but Hall’s Week 7 ACL tear and meniscus sprain ended his rookie season prematurely. Fantasy managers would do well to draft Hall over Stevenson in 2023, based on Hall’s promising rehabilitation process, exceptional dual-threat efficiency combined with sufficient volume, and softer expected backfield competition.

Hall is progressing through the rehabilitation process with jet-like speed, reportedly reaching 22 miles per hour just six months removed from ACL reconstruction (ACLR) and meniscectomy procedures in mid-to-late May. Since clearing the straight-line hurdle, Hall remains on track to resume practicing in mid-August, lining up an ample three-week ramp-up period in advance of Week 1.

Hall began his career playing second fiddle behind then-second-year player Michael Carter, before breaking out in Week 3 with eight rushing attempts and 11 targets. Although Carter remained a factor for Hall’s Weeks 3-6 reign, Hall averaged 18.8 touches per game to Carter’s 10.5 per 4for4’s Player Touches app. During the four-game stretch, Hall’s 18.8-touch workload tied for No. 13 in the NFL, yet his 18.2 Half-PPR points per game were impressively tied for No. 7. Hall also began earning the ever-precious rushing role inside the opponent’s 5-yard line, out-carrying Carter eight-to-five in Weeks 4-6. The development should yield larger results in 2023, with new quarterback Aaron Rodgers orchestrating a far more efficient offense than the Zach Wilson-Mike White-Joe Flacco clown car. Ceding one-third of backfield touches to a competent No. 2 running back is not prohibitive for Hall’s success, especially when he controls the passing-down and scoring-position roles.

Doctors of Physical Therapy, Adam Hutchison (Breece Hall Injury Profile and 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook) and Jeff Mueller, disagree on Hall’s potential ceiling outcome, however, Hutchison does note Hall can find success via passing-game play, an area where Hall already demonstrated requisite RB1 efficiency.

The table below ranks, in parentheses, Hall’s Weeks 3-6 receiving data among 29 NFL running backs with at least 10 targets and his snap data among 37 NFL running backs with at least 30 snaps per game.

Breece Hall: Weeks 3-6 Receiving Data

Cook likewise flashed brilliant rushing capabilities. The table below ranks, in parentheses, Hall’s rushing data among 43 NFL running backs with at least 30 rushing attempts during the same time span.

Breece Hall: Weeks 3-6 Rushing Data

Backfield Competition

New York recently entertained free agent running back Dalvin Cook, but the former Minnesota Viking left town without a contract, indicating New York’s offer failed to provide Cook with his desired role and associated paycheck. New England, meanwhile, has auditioned fellow high-profile free agents Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott over the last three weeks. The consecutive tryouts point toward an open role in New England’s offense, whereas New York’s curiosity appears far more player-centric. Even if New York were to sign Cook, Hall’s established per-game efficiency rates keep Hall’s RB1 hopes well within reason, and why I'm targeting him over Stevenson.