Fantasy Football: DST Strength of Schedule Beneficiaries & Ideal Late-Round Pairings

Jul 20, 2023

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DST is probably the most neglected position in fantasy football. However, that doesn’t mean it isn’t important—a 20-point performance from your defense could be week-winning, as the positional advantage you gain at a “onesie” position is incredibly valuable. Unlike other positions though, team defenses are rather fickle. While you would certainly start your star running back regardless of who they are playing, the same cannot be said for defenses, where matchups are key. So, the ADP of a DST matters far less than other positions, meaning you would be well-advised to wait as long as possible before taking a DST. Quality of defense is important—better defensive players can create more scoring opportunities—but it is also vital to keep matchups in mind.

More Strength of Schedule Beneficiaries: QB | TE | 12 Fantasy Targets

In this article, I will be using 4for4’s Hot Spot Strength of Schedule tool to identify the DSTs with favorable stretches of matchups. The Hot Spot tool uses Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) from 2022 to rank the caliber of the opponent for each team every week. As an example, the New England Patriots have an aFPA of 9.4, which essentially means that opposing defenses scored about 9.4 fantasy points on average against the Patriots last season. The data isn’t perfect because it can’t account for off-season moves—the Jets will presumably have a far lower aFPA with Aaron Rodgers under center this season instead of Zach Wilson—but should still provide a pretty accurate overview of the matchup landscape.

I will try and avoid suggesting the top-5 or so defenses by ADP, as they are all going in the first 12 rounds and are not good picks from a positional value perspective. Ideally, you will be able to match or outperform the production of the “elite” fantasy defenses by shuffling through different, matchup-based options in season.