Gabe Davis is a Diamond in the Fantasy Football Rough

The journey from a late-round NFL draft pick to a breakout star in fantasy football never fails to captivate. Gabe Davis, the wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills, is a prime example of this trajectory. Selected in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Davis was initially seen as a promising, yet raw talent. However, after three seasons of consistent improvement and a breakout performance in 2022, Davis has firmly established himself as a force to be reckoned with in the NFL, giving defensive coordinators a headache opposite Stefon Diggs. As we look ahead to the 2023 season, let's delve into Davis's journey so far and his potential fantasy impact in the upcoming season.

Click here for more 2023 Player Profiles!

Gabe Davis's Career So Far

Davis fought his relatively low draft capital and turned in an impressive rookie season. Despite being the third option in the Bills' passing game behind Diggs and Cole Beasley, Davis managed to rack up 599 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on just 35 receptions. His knack for finding the end zone and making big plays was evident, as he averaged a remarkable 17.1 yards per catch.

Davis's sophomore season in 2021 saw him maintain a similar level of production. He caught 35 passes for 549 yards, averaging 15.7 yards per catch, and scored six touchdowns. His role in the Bills' offense remained consistent, and he continued to be a reliable target for quarterback Josh Allen. The hype train got on the tracks after his performance in their playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs. His 10-target, 8-reception performance saw him gain 201 yards and find the end zone four times in a 42-36 loss. That explosiveness is what makes Davis so enticing, though, as there aren’t many receivers with that type of ceiling.

In his third season in 2022, Davis took a significant leap forward. He was targeted more frequently, catching 48 passes for 836 yards, and he continued to be a red-zone threat with seven touchdowns. His average yards per catch increased to 17.4, showcasing his big-play ability. Davis’ catch rate fell under 55% for the first time in his career, though.

Davis in the Bills' Offense

The Bills' offense, led by the dynamic Josh Allen, is one of the most potent in the NFL. With a pass-heavy approach, there are plenty of opportunities for receivers to make an impact. Davis, with his speed and excellent route-running ability, fits perfectly into this high-octane offense.

The Bills have one of the best combinations of willingness to throw and efficiency on pass attempts. They ranked third in pass rate over expected. This means that even in typical rushing situations, like when they’re leading late in games, they still choose to pass. They only trailed Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Pass EPA per Play.

The Bills have no issue taking deep shots with those pass attempts. Davis was 11th in air yards per game while his teammate Stefon Diggs was 7th in that category. They were one of only two tandems to rank that highly. DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown were 5th and 9th, respectively, for the Cardinals last season. Among wide receivers with at least 75 targets in 2022, Davis sported the highest aDOT with his average target from Allen traveling 15.3 yards in the air. In the past three years, only two other receivers have hit 15+ yards in that category on that number of targets.

Is Drafting Davis Worth It?

When it comes to fantasy football, opportunity is king. His ability to make big plays and find the end zone makes him a valuable asset in any fantasy format. His low catch rate is made up for by his explosiveness. It would be good to see his target share increase. The good news on that front is that the Bills didn’t add any true competition to make us second-guess his role. No offense to Deonte Harty or Trent Sherfield but they don’t exactly instill fear. They did draft Dalton Kincaid, but he isn’t a direct threat to the type of targets that Davis has seen so far in his career.

Currently, Davis's ADP sits around WR39 on Underdog. According to our multi-site ADP tool, he’s being drafted around Pick 100 on sites like FFPC and BB10s, making him a mid-round pick in most drafts.

It's hard to envision a scenario where he isn't the top-scoring wide receiver of this bunch. Even with the possibility of a breakout rookie performance from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who I wrote about recently, none of these receivers are sure bets to outperform Davis.

The Bottom Line

• Gabe Davis, a fourth-round draft pick turned breakout star, has established himself as a key player in the Buffalo Bills' high-octane offense.
• Despite a drop in his catch rate in 2022, Davis's increased targets and red-zone threat status highlight his potential for the upcoming 2023 season.
• The Bills' pass-heavy approach and willingness to take deep shots enhance Davis' fantasy value.
• The Bills' offseason moves suggest Davis' role in the offense is secure, making him a compelling mid-round pick in fantasy drafts.
• Davis' current ADP offers significant value, with the potential to outperform receivers being drafted around him due to the lack of serious competition for targets on the Bills.
• Davis, with his combination of talent, opportunity, and potential, offers plenty of value for the 2023 fantasy season, making him a priority target for redraft.