Is Mike Evans Undervalued in Fantasy Football?

Mike Evans is about as consistent a wide receiver as they come. Born on August 21, 1993, in Galveston, Texas, Evans has carved out a successful career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Known for his impressive physicality and exceptional big-play ability, Evans has become a key figure in the Buccaneers' offensive lineup and a favorite target for quarterbacks. Most of those targets have come from Tom Brady and Jameis Winston. There are four other passers who have thrown passes to Evans, but those have only accounted for roughly 18% of his total targets.

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Mike Evans’ Career So Far

Evans has a streak of nine straight seasons with over 1,000 yards. It’s a testament not only to his skill but also to his durability. Since 2014, Evans has played in 137 games. The most of any wide receiver. In that span, he’s also tallied the third-most receiving yards, trailing only DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones.

He was a sought-after recruit out of high school in Texas. Evans had a record-setting career and earned All-American honors at Texas A&M. His career started with a bang. Evans earned 122 targets in his rookie year and found the end zone 12 times. Since 2010, only Ja'Marr Chase has had a rookie season with more than a dozen touchdowns. Since his rookie year, he’s finished his seasons with anywhere from 109 to 173 targets. He finished 2022 with 77 receptions on 127 targets. It was also his highest yardage total since 2019.

In 2022, he lagged behind Chris Godwin by about 20 targets over the course of the season. Evans’ total of 127 targets is nothing to scoff at, though. It was the 17th-most targets of any wide receiver—in only 15 games. His relative lack of targets can be attributed to where he earned those targets.

Of all receivers with at least 100 targets last year, he was 1.3 standard deviations above the mean, which equates to a 90th-percentile outcome. His targets per route run in that group were in the 22nd percentile. In other words, he was exceptional at earning deep targets, but they were few and far between. Those numbers came along with Tom Brady last year. But Brady isn’t walking through the door in Tampa Bay this season.

Looking Ahead to 2023

Evans is now faced with a significant quarterback downgrade and—cue the ominous piano music—turning 30. It’s difficult to know exactly how the downgrade will impact Evans. The way he scores fantasy points is heavily reliant on a strong connection with the quarterback. His teammate, Chris Godwin, will have an easier time picking up where he left off because most of his targets are layups. Godwin had the lowest aDOT of any wide receiver with 100+ targets a season ago. Evans had the second-highest aDOT of that same group.

Since 2015, Brady had an average yards per attempt (AYA) of 12.25 on targets that traveled 15+ yards down the field. Mayfield has an AYA of 10.7 for those types of throws. Mike Evans slots in right between them at 11.24 in that same timeframe.

That dip might be possible to overcome, but combined with his age, it is a bit concerning. As a 35-year-old writing this, it feels weird to say, but 30 is a tough age for wide receivers. There have been 62 29-year-old wide receivers averaging 15+ PPR points since 2000. Only 30% of those receivers still averaged 15+ PPR points as a 30-year-old. Even worse, 51-of-62 (82%) saw a dip in production from their 29- to 30-year-old seasons. I’m not saying this is an automatic thing, but the base rate here is pretty overwhelming. With his talent level, we’d expect him to score plenty of points, but it would be a tall order to overcome the historical trends there.

Mike Evans’ ADP in Context

His ADP has floated around quite a bit. Back in 2017, he was a first-round pick. Evans hasn’t fallen outside of the top 50 picks in fantasy in the years that followed. According to our multi-site ADP tool, he’s being taken as WR32, somewhere in the seventh round, typically.

This section of wide receivers seems very important to get right. There is quite a mix, from established wide receivers who’ve shown high ceilings to young wide receivers that have breakout potential.

In my opinion, the biggest question surrounding Evans is whether his price has fallen enough to justify the risk that either he falls off the age cliff, gets Baker Mayfield-ed, or both. Wide receivers who’ve been drafted between WR25 and WR35 over the past six years have averaged 150 PPR points. Half of the wide receivers in that sample scored between 112 and 178 PPR points.

Even with a significant drop in production from last year’s 227 points, Evans can likely hit the 75th-percentile outcome in this range of players. Expectations have to be lowered, but the community as a whole seems like they may have overreacted in allowing Evans to fall this low in drafts. If you're looking for a steady plug-and-play option, Evans should fit the mold.

Bottom Line

• Mike Evans has been a cornerstone for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with most of his targets coming from Tom Brady and Jameis Winston. He's known for his physical prowess and big-play capability.
• With a streak of nine seasons surpassing 1,000 yards, Evans stands out with the most games played by any wide receiver since 2014. He's third in receiving yards, only behind DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones.
• As Evans approaches 30, he faces challenges with a quarterback change and historical trends showing a decline in production for wide receivers at this age. The connection with a quarterback is vital for Evans, given his style of play.
• Historically a top pick, Evans' current ADP places him as WR32 in the seventh round. The debate is whether his draft position has adjusted enough to account for potential risks, such as age-related decline or adapting to a new quarterback.
• As a whole, the community seems to have overreacted in allowing Evans to fall this low in drafts. The risk of the age cliff and a downgrade at quarterback is priced into his ADP. His 1,000-yard streak might be in jeopardy and he might lack the top-end ceiling of other options in his range, but he can still pay off his price in drafts this season.