Rachaad White: The Fantasy Football Steal of the Season?

Over the last couple of years, there has been a lot of discussion about the running back “dead zone”. There’s a portion of drafts where running backs with “guaranteed volume” seem to settle each year. The price is usually too high for a projection that’s more fragile than most drafters care to admit. For whatever reason, some running backs with safe volume fall through the cracks and go later in drafts. Rachaad White seems to be that guy this year. With little to no competition for touches, can we afford to pass on him at his current price?

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Analyzing Rachaad White’s ADP

There are numerous strategies to evaluate a player's value in fantasy football. One common method is by looking at their ADP. However, a player's value isn't just about their ADP in isolation. At positions like running back, where the workload is often shared, it's also crucial to consider their value relative to their teammates.

For instance, if two running backs from the same team have ADPs that are close to each other, it might be a smart strategy to draft the less expensive one. The rationale behind this is that the NFL season is unpredictable, and the cheaper back could end up getting more playing time due to injuries, performance, or coaching decisions.

On the other hand, if a running back has no teammates at his position being drafted at all, it's a strong indication of how he's being valued by the community. This situation usually means that the player is expected to receive the majority of the team's workload.

In the case of Rachaad White, his lack of competition in the backfield could make him a valuable pick in fantasy drafts. It’s a perfect storm for drafting White from a structural standpoint because he’s being selected right when the wide receiver well seems to dry up. One of the reasons his price is so low is that Tampa Bay’s win total sits at 6.5 and they’ll likely be playing from behind for much of the season. Overall, I think that’s actually a bit overvalued. Especially in a situation where it appears that one back will own most of the work.

White’s Rookie Year and a Look Ahead

Until November, White only had one game where he cracked 40% of the offensive snaps for Tampa Bay. Even when he wasn’t touching the field that often, he was still featured in the passing game. For the first nine weeks of the season, White averaged just under three targets per game. From Weeks 12-17, his pass game usage grew quite a bit. White averaged 5.5 targets per game down that stretch.

His usage on the ground was a bit all over the place. From Week 4 on, White had anywhere from 22 to four rushes. With 31 high-value touches during the stretch from Weeks 12-17, White ranked sixth in the NFL. His teammate, Leonard Fournette, was third during that span with 36. From a team standpoint, that’s a huge chunk of vacated HVTs that have to go somewhere. As the primary running back, it's reasonable to expect that most of these will go to White in the 2023 season.

This expectation is another reason why I'm not overly concerned about Tampa Bay's projected win total limiting White's fantasy value. High-value touches, like targets, don’t disappear when a team is trailing. Across his seasons as a head coach, Todd Bowles-coached teams have averaged 12th in the league in RB target share. In his highest season, the team ranked fourth in a year where he finished with Bilal Powell as his primary back.

Conclusion

White's role in the Tampa Bay offense grew significantly over the course of his rookie season. Despite a slow start, his usage in both the passing and rushing game increased, particularly from Week 12 onwards. With no significant free agent signings and no backs taken in the draft, volume should be there for White.

• In redraft, I’m happy to take him at cost, as the RB27 price tag he’s currently sitting at is absurd. I’m usually on Team “ADP is efficient” but this one makes no sense to me.
• He's currently 4for4's 24th-ranked RB in half-PPR scoring.
• In best ball tournaments, I’m scooping up as much of him as I possibly can.

If you’re asking me how much Rachaad White exposure is too much, in the immortal words of Cady Heron, the limit does not exist.