Tyler Lockett Will Thrive in Fantasy Football in a New Role
The Seattle Seahawks selected Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 2023 NFL Draft’s 20th overall pick. Smith-Njigba’s dominant slot-alignment talents will push veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett to the formation’s perimeter at a likely career-high rate. Smith-Njigba was sidelined for much of 2022, but his 1,421 slot-receiving yards in 2021 led Power-5 slot receivers by more than 185, per SportsInfoSolutions. An increase in perimeter routes for Lockett may scare some, but the ninth-year veteran has had a career renaissance via an increase in out-wide pre-snap alignment usage over the last three seasons. Fantasy football managers should draft Lockett aggressively, coming off a 2022 league-best perimeter performance playing alongside newly installed quarterback Geno Smith.
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Perimeter Efficiency and Snap Insulation
Lockett’s consistent play when lined up out wide demonstrates his route-running evolution and dynamic ability. The table below compares Lockett’s slot and perimeter target-earning and yardage-efficiency receiving metrics since 2019.
| Year | Perimeter Routes - Tgts | Perimeter TPRR - YPRR | Slot Routes - Tgts | Slot TPRR - YPRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 195 - 36 | 18.5% - 2.1 | 315 - 77 | 24.4% - 1.9 |
| 2021 | 198 - 44 | 22.2% - 2.3 | 267 - 59 | 22.1% - 2.5 |
| 2020 | 138 - 36 | 26.1% - 2.0 | 460 - 94 | 20.4% - 1.7 |
| 2019 | 87 - 14 | 16.1% - 0.8 | 442 - 91 | 20.6% - 2.2 |
Lockett’s perimeter performance compared to his league-wide contemporaries was remarkable. The table below ranks Lockett’s 2022 perimeter receiving data among 43 NFL wide receivers with at least 35 targets when lined up on the formation’s perimeter.
WR Perimeter Receiving Data 2022
| Catch % | Yds/Tgt | NFL Passer Rating |
|---|---|---|
| 80.6% (1st) | 11.3 (t-2nd) | 139.4 (1st) |
The expected perimeter usage increase also solidifies Lockett’s presence in two-wide receiver sets, a feature of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s system. In both 2021 and 2022, Seattle’ finished outside the top 16 teams in three-wide receiver set rate, plummeting to 26th last year (54.4%), per 4for's NFL Team Stats Explorer.
ADP and Prior Half-PPR Results
Lockett has banked WR13–WR19 half-PPR finishes dating back to 2019, most notably earning the premier WR2 spot in 2022. His WR29, 6.09 ADP, per 4for4’s 12-team Multi-Site ADP tool, is egregiously low, but it makes for an easy stack with Smith, who is coming off the board at a similarly valuable QB16, 9.07 ADP.
Quarterback Accuracy
Smith’s 2022 performance earned him a Pro Bowl nod and the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award while playing behind Seattle’s mid-tier offensive line (20.6% quarterback pressure rate allowed, 20th). The unit is improved by free agent signee center Evan Brown, which directly increases Smith’s odds at repeating his QB6 2022 season. Smith’s stellar showing was keyed by league-leading marks in completion rate (69.6%) and completion percentage over expectation (5.4%) among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks. His exceptional top-five on-target rate (75.7%) and air yards completion rate (57.9%) trailed close behind.
Pass-Heavy Game Scripts
Lockett’s 2023 prospects are also enhanced by expected game scripts. NFC West offenses are trending upward with Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford now healthy (elbow, head, and neck injuries in 2022), Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (ACL) on track to return in October, and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy cleared to practice without restriction (UCL repair) on July 25. Arizona wisely replaced ineffectual head coach Kliff Kingsbury with former Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon this offseason. Gannon spent the last five years studying under offensive gurus Frank Reich (Indianapolis Colts) and Nick Sirianni, which will help Gannon implement analytics-savvy, modern-day concepts within the Arizona offense.
Seattle’s non-divisional opponent likewise brings extreme shootout potential. The table below ranks the 2022 offensive production of Seattle’s notable non-divisional opponents. The Baltimore Ravens’ data is pulled from quarterback Lamar Jackson’s 13 healthy games. The Tennessee Titans were left out of the table after a down year in 2022, but the addition of free agent wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, a return to health for quarterback Ryan Tannehill (high-ankle sprain), and second-year wide receiver Treylon Burks (turf toe and a concussion), and the ascension of second-year tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo make their passing offense a force to be reckoned with.
| SEA Opponent Offense | Total Yards/Game | Points/Game |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 379.6 (4th) | 26.8 (t-4th) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 354.8 (10th) | 25.8 (7th) |
| Cleveland Browns | 349.4 (14th) | 21.2 (17th) |
| Baltimore Ravens* | 348.9 (15th) | 23.2 (13th) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 353.7 (11th) | 26.8 (t-4th) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 385.7 (3rd) | 28.7 (1st) |
Bottom Line
- Smith-Njigba’s presence will increase Lockett’s perimeter alignment rate.
- Lockett was arguably the NFL’s best perimeter receiver in 2022.
- The perimeter role also helps Lockett box out Smith-Njigba in two-wide receiver sets.
- Smith’s top-tier passing accuracy should remain on point with improved pass protection from Seattle’s upgrade at the center position.
- Seattle’s game scripts should yield pass-happy results thanks to improved quarterback health for all three divisional foes and impending battles with at least seven non-divisional offensive powerhouses.
- Lockett’s WR29, 6.09 ADP is unreasonably low for a near-shoe-in top-24 performance.
