Treylon Burks

Fantasy Upside
Treylon Burks got off to a slow start in his rookie season after being taken as the 18th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Burks did not manage to produce a start-worthy week in fantasy until after he returned from injury in Week 11. However, Burks' role increased down the stretch and he managed to log weekly finishes of WR12, WR18, and WR22 in three late games despite dealing with incredibly bad QB play from Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs in Ryan Tannehill's absence. The good news is Tannehill is back healthy and set to start under center heading into 2023. Tannehill isn't a flashy quarterback to pair with any receiver, but he has managed to sustain productive fantasy receivers in the past, and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins only increases the likelihood that the Titans throw a bit more than they typically would this season. A big step forward is within Burks' range of outcomes heading into his sophomore season, and he remains a talented prospect whose team invested heavily to draft him. He will slot in behind Hopkins to start the season, but a breakout could move him to the top of the target hierarchy in Tennessee.

Fantasy Downside
Burks was poised to be the unquestioned top target for Tannehill before the acquisition of Hopkins, but now Burks will have to compete with the veteran for targets in what is traditionally a very run-heavy offensive scheme under Mike Vrabel. If Hopkins hogs targets an another option like TE Chigoziem Okonkwo emerges as a legitimate receiving threat, Burks faces the prospect of getting squeezed in terms of target share to return value at his ADP. In addition to volume concerns, Burks was not particularly efficient over the course of his rookie season although he did improve later in the year. Burks' 1.96 yards per route run ranked 32nd amongst qualifying WRs and he only saw one deep target per game. Part of that can be attributed to the Titans' QB situation last year, but Burks will need to show some improvement in the efficiency department to break out of the WR3/4 range for fantasy.

2023 Bottom Line
Burks was looking like a strong volume-based play before Hopkins signed in Tennessee. Now Burks has a shaky volume projection due to increased target competition and the Titans' run-heavy tendencies. Burks makes for an intriguing breakout candidate if he falls late into drafts due to Hopkins' arrival due to talent and his young age, but until he shows he has the skills to be an alpha receiver he can't be considered anything more than a middling WR3 in fantasy.