Breakout Receiver Model: Week 10
The Breakout receiver model returns triumphantly for Week 10, with yet another week of double-digit hits from last week’s model. With one of the toughest slates in recent memory upcoming, with tons of great players unavailable due to byes, injuries, or impossibly tough matchups, the breakout receiver model can be a useful tool in navigating these murky season-long and DFS waters. Let’s briefly dig into last week’s hits, and then analyze the model results for this week.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.
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