2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 13
The 4for4 breakout receiver model’s back for Week 13, following another impressive week in which the model accurately forecasted double-digit "hits" based on historical data. As we delve deeper into the season, and with many season-long players’ trade deadlines in the rear-view mirror, we’ll shift the model’s focus to players we believe in (or don’t believe in) for the final weeks of the regular season, whereas the DFS section will focus on players we believe are destined for (mostly) short-term success. Let’s dig into the data.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.
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