Week 14 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Miami Rolls at Home

Dec 06, 2023

Jim Rassol / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Week 14 slate features three games with spreads of a touchdown or more, followed by a cluster of closer ones. With byes still happening, there are fewer options, and this week, I went with all my favorites. Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.

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Week 13 Recap

Only the Steelers let me down last week, with the Cowboys, Dolphins, and Rams all coming out with a victory. That brings my record to 27-12 since starting this column in Week 5.

Favorite Favorites

Miami Dolphins vs. Titans

Tennesee’s secondary won’t have the answer for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, with not enough offensive firepower to keep up. Miami is a 13.5-point favorite with 88% PoolGenius odds to win at home. Public bettors are taking Miami 99% of the time, so you’ll win or lose this pick with your whole pool.

New Orleans Saints vs. Panthers

Jameis Winston at QB can provide a spark to the passing game via Chris Olave, while Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill can continue to do their multi-faceted things. Rookie Bryce Young won’t be able to hang on the road in the Saints' hostile environment. New Orleans is a five-point favorite, with Vegas odds of 68% to come out victorious. The public is rolling with the Saints 97% of the time, so you’ll win or lose with most of your poolmates.

Sensibly Priced Favorites

Houston Texans @ Jets

The Texans have won four of their last five contests, while the Jets have scored an average of just 9.6 points since their bye in Week 7. Houston is a 5.5-point favorite on the road with a nice 69% odds to win via both PoolGenius and Vegas. They are sensibly priced because only 94% of bettors are selecting the Texans, which is lower than teams with similar spreads like the Saints (97%) or Steelers (96%).

Green Bay Packers @ Giants

The Packers are on a bit of a three-game heater, but New York may have Tyrod Taylor back, and along with Saquon Barkley, this could be closer than the 6.5-point spread indicates. Jordan Love still gets it done and with 93% of public pickers agreeing, you’ll get some value here as teams with similar spreads Ravens (97%) and Saints (97%) are more popular.

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Survivor Picks for Week 14

Win Odds: Top 5 Week 14 Picks

Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.

Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):

Dolphins vs. Titans (88%, 13.5-point favorites)
49ers vs. Seahawks (84%, 10.5-point favorites)
Ravens vs. Rams (75%, 7-point favorites)
Packers @ Giants (74%, 6.5-point favorites)
Steelers vs. Patriots (71%, 6-point favorites)

Pick Popularity

Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 14 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):

Packers @ Giants (24%)
Texans @ Jets (18%)
Steelers vs. Patriots (16%)
Saints vs. Panthers (14%)
Ravens vs Rams (10%)

Future Value

The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 14, you won’t be able to use them later. According to PoolGenius, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool: