Week 15 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Dec 15, 2023

Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports

We finally turned the ship around in Week 14! It wasn’t much, but profit is profit after the previous weeks. It’s crazy because, based on the numbers we got and how the games were playing out, I thought we were going to have an insanely good week.

We bet Josh Allen over 32.5 rushing yards, and everything was playing out as we anticipated. There were designed runs, and he was scrambling a bunch. He had 34 yards with a few minutes left. With the Chiefs turning the ball over on downs, two kneels from Josh Allen took us back down to 32.5, and we lost. Outrageous run bad there.

Despite the Ravens-Rams game turning into a shootout in subpar conditions, we still had life on his under of 45.5 receiving yards because the handicap also included a lower target rate vs. zone coverage. He was under 45 receiving yards until the Raven's final 17-yard touchdown with minimal time remaining.

To wrap up the week, we bet Jayden Reed over 39.5 receiving yards. His prop closed in the mid-high 40’s and we knew he would be heavily involved in the gameplan. He wound up catching 8 passes… for 27 yards. It was the second-fewest yards in NFL history on 8 receptions. He also had 3 runs for over 30 yards, so taking the rushing and receiving prop would have been a winning move. Tough luck, but I can feel the tides turning! On to Week 15…

Week 15 NFL Player Prop Bets

Desmond Ridder under 191.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel but would play 181.5 at B365)

Since their Week 7 bye, the Panthers' pass defense has been playing well. They are allowing just 162 passing yards per game, and only one QB has cleared 190 passing yards in 7 weeks. That includes games against CJ Stroud (140 passing yards) and Dak Prescott (189 passing yards)! It's not just because they are getting their teeth kicked in and opposing teams don't need to throw anymore; their pass defense is 12th in success rate, 3rd in explosive pass rate, and 12th in EPA per dropback.

Now we factor in that the Falcons love to run the ball and are coming off a game where they opened up a bit and got burned against the Bucs. I expect an extremely run-centric game plan here against Carolina. The last time they played in Week 1, it was tied 10-10 entering the 4th quarter, and Ridder finished with just 115 passing yards on 21 pass attempts. With the Panthers remaining extremely run-heavy on their own end and incapable of sustaining consistent offense, this figures to be neutral or positive game script for Atlanta for the entire game. Even if the Falcons do fall behind, I expect them to lean on the run to maintain offense, as we have seen in years past.

There are now expected to be 15+ MPH winds and substantial rain. It's not like either team needed an extra push to run more but they may get that here.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit