2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 18
Ah, Week 18. 'Tis the season of resting starters, convoluted playoff scenarios, and wacky DFS plays, but nevertheless, the Breakout Receiver Model chugs along. We're focused entirely on DFS at this point in the season, but if you play in a season-long league where the commissioner actively despises normality and forces a Week 18 fantasy championship upon you, there's plenty to glean here as well. Keep in mind that quarterback and expected playing-time changes for Week 18 can drastically alter projections more than any other week in the regular season. Even worse, some of this information is learned later in the week, however, we'll do our best to highlight players who appear to be locked-in to full-game expectations. Let's dig into the data.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.
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