Week 18 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Jan 07, 2024

Sunday Night Single-Game DFS: Bills at Dolphins

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 18 Sunday Night Football, featuring a pivotal clash between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. This final game of the 2023 NFL regular season couldn’t have larger playoff implications, especially for the Bills. Buffalo, currently 10-6, could either clinch the AFC East with a victory or face the risk of missing the playoffs, depending on this game’s outcomes. Miami, at 11-5, has secured a playoff berth but is vying to maintain their division lead and earn the right to host a playoff game in Wild Card weekend. The game environment is complex, with the Dolphins' resilience in question after a recent blowout by the Ravens (and the small possibility of folding if they fall behind early since they’ve already clinched). However, the expectation is for starters to play the full game on both sides, making this a highly anticipated and potentially explosive matchup. Let’s into the key plays and strategies for this single-game slate.

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Game Environment

This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.

Bills (26.5) @ Dolphins (23.5); Over/Under 50

The Bills will likely approach this game with a pass-focused strategy. Over the course of the season, they’ve been slightly above average in both pass rate and pace in neutral game scripts. Under Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, it should be noted that the Bills have shown a stark variance in their play calling, with quarterback Josh Allen's passing attempts ranging from as low as fifteen to as high as 51in a game. Despite their winning record, Buffalo's overall pace of play is the seventh slowest in the league. Allen averages 4.5 deep attempts and 4.3 red zone pass attempts per game, both slightly above the league average. Buffalo averages 3.1 offensive touchdowns per game, fifth highest in the NFL.

Miami, meanwhile, is counterintuitively average from a pace and passing approach in neutral game scenarios. Instead, their offensive innovation comes via unorthodox formations, diverse personnel, and extensive pre-snap motion. Ranking 19th in pass plays per game and 24th in pace, Miami's deep passing volume is also average at 3.6 attempts per game. However, their deep pass efficiency has been exceptional throughout the season, thanks in no small part to Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins do tend to be more pass-heavy in the red zone, with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa averaging 4.6 attempts per game inside the 20. While they average 3.4 offensive touchdowns per game this season, the second-best in the NFL, Miami has seen a bit of a decline of late, averaging just 2.0 touchdowns per game in their last three outings, 10th-worst in the league.

Quarterback Analysis

While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.

Josh Allen’s 2023 metrics simply reaffirm his status as one of the NFL’s elite. Invited to the Pro Bowl once again, Allen's among the top 12 in both Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) and true drive success rate. And he’s just outside the top five in Expected Points Added (EPA) per game. Allen leads the league in air yards and is sixth in overall passing attempts, resulting in the seventh-most passing yards and the seventh-most passing touchdowns this year. He also averages six rushes per game, including 2.2 attempts per game in the red zone (second most in the NFL), which has allowed him to amass a staggering fifteen rushing touchdowns, the most by any quarterback this season. The dual-threat capability has propelled him to the top spot among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, and his ceiling remains unparalleled even on this slate full of stars.

Tua Tagovailoa’s 2023 season has been his best as a pro. He’s one of only two quarterbacks (alongside Brock Purdy) in the top five in CPOE, true drive success rate, and EPA per game. He’s second in AYA, and first in accuracy rating according to PlayerProfiler. Unlike Allen, Tagovailoa’s impact with his legs is essentially nonexistent, averaging only 2.1 rushes per game and not yet scoring a rushing touchdown this season. Despite this, he’s 16th in fantasy points per game. His ability to maintain high-level play despite a banged-up shoulder, which could particularly limit his effectiveness on deep passes, will be crucial in the high-stakes matchup against the Bills.