College Football's Best Week 2 Bet

Sep 08, 2023

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

What a debut! Last week, I backed Washington, and Michael Penix made sure that bet got home with ease. Penix threw for 450 yards and five touchdowns against that young secondary, and we had a stress-free Week 1. I can only pray that every week, it's that easy for us to find a winner.

2023 record: 1-0

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James Madison @ Virginia

JMU -6.5 | O/U 40.5

One of the most important factors in college football when it comes to winning and covering games is success rate. Success rate measures how good an offense is at moving the ball and staying on schedule, while it measures how well a defense prevents the other team from doing the same. The Virginia Cavaliers sit all by themselves as the worst Power 5 team in the country in both offensive and defensive success rates after their matchup with Tennessee.

Virginia was outgained 499-201 by the Volunteers, and they were dominated in the efficiency department. Tennessee’s offense earned a 59% overall success rate, while Virginia was only able to muster a 16% success rate on offense. Virginia’s offense did not contribute any explosive plays to make up for this lack of efficiency either; the Cavaliers earned -0.162 EPA/pass and -0.349 EPA/rush.

A lot of Virginia’s struggles can be attributed to being absolutely dominated in the trenches. Tennessee gained 4.1 line yards per rush, while Virginia’s offensive line only gained 0.4 line yards per rush. The 2022 national average was 3.1, which means that Tennessee won both sides of the line of scrimmage with ease.

Now Virginia hosts a James Madison team that made a living last season dominating success rate and the line of scrimmage, the two areas Virginia struggles with the most. In 2022, James Madison finished the year 1st in defensive success rate and 1st in defensive line yards, and the Dukes returned 81% of last year’s defensive production, which is the 8th most in the country. JMU picked up where they left off last year by holding Bucknell to only 1.1 line yards per rush and only a 24% success rate. JMU's defensive line will have a huge advantage over Virginia's offensive line in this game.

James Madison's offense also looked really good on the ground. The Dukes rushed for 267 yards on 6.7 yards per carry and had seven rushes of 10 or more yards. Virginia's defense is going to get steamrolled if they don't put forth a better effort than they did last weekend. The Cavaliers allowed Tennessee to rush for 294 yards on 6.4 yards per carry and surrendered 10 rushes of 10 or more yards themselves.

To make matters even worse for Virginia, they will most likely be without their starting QB, Tony Muskett, who injured his shoulder against Tennessee. Muskett looked decent in a few drives before exiting the game, but his backup was a trainwreck. Freshman Anthony Colandrea came in to replace Muskett and went 1-6 for only 11 yards in relief.

Lastly, I’m just not a fan of Tony Elliott and offensive coordinator Desmond Kitchings. This offense is incredibly vanilla, and there is a complete lack of talent at all the skill positions.

James Madison should win both sides of the line of scrimmage and win easily in a low-scoring game.