SharpClarke's Best Week 2 NFL Bet: BAL @ CIN

Sep 15, 2023

Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

I certainly won't pick a 40-0 winner every week in this Matchup Spotlight series, but I will try to keep things going with another breakdown of one of my favorite games on the board for Week 2. Making the transition from Week 1 to Week 2 is all about identifying reasons to react and reasons to reserve judgment. When the Ravens visit the Bengals this week, I see an opportunity for both, leading to some perceived betting value. Let's dive in.

Get a full year of our subscription for as low as $10, or 2 months for $5! Find out how.

Matchup Breakdown

CIN Offense vs. BAL Defense

The Bengals' offensive ineptitude in Week 1 is a prime example of a situation where I am preaching patience and avoiding an overreaction. Sometimes, a confluence of factors causes a snowball effect and leads to results that have very little predictive value. They were playing on the road in a tough environment in Cleveland, against a ferocious defensive front that got in the backfield consistently quickly on every pass attempt. Joe Burrow has always struggled with that type of defense, and with Cleveland in particular. And this was the best version of the Browns' defense he has ever faced. Some struggle was predictable. But on top of that, he came into the game with very few reps due to his calf strain, seemed unwilling to fully scramble and take hits, and even had some glove-related issues throwing the ball in heavy rain.

If we didn't have two years of watching Burrow succeed with this very same offense, I might be more inclined to throw up the worry flag. But Burrow will find his rhythm. Maybe he is still hampered by the injury, but I was encouraged that they kept him out there in a game that was clearly over with 8 minutes left, to continue getting reps. That told me the Bengals think he needs reps more than he needs rest. That bodes well for Week 2. The Ravens come into this game without Marcus Williams and likely without Marlon Humphrey. I expect a much tighter quick game from the Bengals and receivers who should be able to get open quickly. The Ravens' defense has caused Burrow problems in the past, but with a healthy offensive line, injuries on the Ravens' defense, better weather (hopefully), and a home crowd, I expect a normalized performance from this offense. Frankie says R-E-L-A-X.

BAL Offense v. CIN Defense

The Ravens' offense was also sneakily bad last week, and this is where I do want to react to what I saw in Week 1. They averaged 4.6 yards per play against a Texans' defense missing its two starting safeties by the end of the game. In the first half, they had five drives, leading to three punts, an interception, and a touchdown. Lamar Jackson was asked to run a more traditional passing offense, oftentimes with three wide receivers and a traditional dropback. He did not thrive. He waited too long on several throws and took far too many sacks based on the speed of the pressure. It's possible he gets more comfortable as the season goes on, and he had two really nice throws that stood out to me and showed off his passing ability. If he can improve his decision-making time, this could improve. But with a new offense being worked in, I am more likely to lean into what I've seen than priors from a different offensive system.

On top of that, they enter this matchup likely with a cluster injury on the offensive line. Center Tyler Linderbaum and Tackle Ronnie Stanley will likely miss this game. With J.K. Dobbins, their most explosive runner, also out, it will be imperative that Jackson runs this offense effectively. I would not want my money on that proposition against an angry and talented Bengals' defensive front in hostile territory. It never feels comfortable betting against a player as talented as Lamar Jackson, but this might be a performance on the low end of his range, given the circumstances. I was impressed with what Zay Flowers brought to the table in his first game as a rookie, and they should get Mark Andrews back, which is huge. There is a chance this offense turns it around in one week, but I wouldn't count on it.

Market Evaluation

This game has been a true battle between bettors who want to bet the Ravens +3.5 and the Bengals -3. As a result, books are trying to take as many bets at -115 or -120 on the spread as possible, shading numbers accordingly. Neither side has really established itself, although, at the time of this writing, it seems books are generally more willing to write Bengals -3 tickets than Ravens +3.5. Given the recent history of this rivalry, that makes sense. It is often a close game.

Best Bet

I do not want to get caught up in the battle at the key number of 3. Like last week, I will take the moneyline favorite and just hope for the outright win. Sometimes there are situations where a close win increases in likelihood based on the composition of the teams involved. Sitting at 0-1 after an embarrassing divisional loss, Burrow and company should be very dialed in. We have seen both the offense and defense make plays in the highest-leverage moments, so even if the Bengals do not run away with this one, they should find a way to deliver the victory at home.

CIN ML -166 (FanDuel), playable to -180