Championship Round Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Jan 26, 2024

Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

We added another 2 units to the bank last week but were six total yards away from a clean sweep on regular props. We won Jayden Reed over 3.5 receptions, Gus Edwards under 52.5 rushing yards, Stefon Diggs under 63.5 receiving yards, and David Montgomery under 14.5 carries. Interestingly enough, all of the unders I released, won.

The two bets that wound up losing were Isaiah Likely over 34.5 and Jameson Williams 40+ receiving yards. Likely finished with 34, and Williams finished with 35. If I put a hook emoji next to the recap, it doesn’t count as a loss, right? That’s how it works?

Jokes aside, it was nearly an awesome week, but I’m not going to complain about profit. With sportsbooks releasing props earlier, as there are fewer games, we will be releasing props earlier.

We are offering an insane deal for this week and the Super Bowl. You can get all of my bets, Noonan’s tackle props, and Sharp Clarke’s sides and totals for just $9.99 with code: "WIN" All of our plays come with in-depth explanations, and you have access to our thoughts in the discord.

I also write up an annual in-depth Super Bowl preview that breaks down both sides of the ball from every angle and also includes my best bets (usually 5-7 total).

Click here to get the Betting Subscription for only $9.99 by using promo code "WIN"

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Championship Round Player Prop Bets

As a reminder, numbers change quickly which is why all plays are originally released in our subscriber discord!

Zay Flowers under 4.5 receptions (-130 at Bet 365)

We released this in the discord at 4.5 receptions with -115 juice at DraftKings, MGM, ESPNBet, and others. Flowers has multiple things working against him this week. Mark Andrews seems very likely to return this week after practicing in full last week, and Harbaugh said this was his target week to return. On top of more competition, the Chiefs' secondary has been stellar this season, ranking top-5 in almost every pass-defense metric. They also play with two-high safeties or MOFO (middle of field open) at a league-high rate north of 63%.

Against two-high/MOFO with Mark Andrews (Weeks 2-10)

16.3% Target Share
0.16 Targets per route run

Even if Mark Andrews doesn't return, Flowers saw a 3% less target share against two-high/MOFO coverages in games Andrews didn't play in.

The more I handicap this game, the more I expect the Chiefs to absolutely load the box, play a ton of Cover-0 or Cover 2, force tough completions, pressure Lamar, and try to stop the run. That's obviously much easier said than done (especially on the running part), but I would expect that to be their game plan, which will make things even tougher for Flowers on a play-to-play basis. If they don't do that, the Ravens will just run all over the Chiefs and won't have to throw the ball very much.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit