Week 5 London Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Oct 07, 2023

Sunday Morning London Single-Game DFS: Jaguars vs. Bills

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to this week's showdown breakdown where the NFL takes its talents across the pond yet another weekend as the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Buffalo Bills. The Bills come into this game riding high after trouncing the previously unbeaten Dolphins. The Jaguars are sitting at 2-2 after gaining some confidence with an easy victory against the Falcons last weekend. Let's dive into the depths of this transatlantic matchup and see how we can capitalize in DFS.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Jaguars (+5.5, 21.25) vs. Bills (-5.5, 26.75); Over/Under 48 (Neutral Location, London)

The betting lines and over/under for this game have been fluctuating throughout the week. Currently, the game total is set at 48, with the Bills implied for 26.75 points and the Jaguars for 21.75. The Bills, fresh off scoring 37 and 48 points in consecutive weeks, are pushing the over/under higher, especially when considering the injuries to Buffalo's star cornerback Tre White and D-lineman Greg Rousseau and how that could affect Jacksonville's ability to move the ball. The Jaguars have been more aggressive than league average in passing and pace, but it hasn't translated into touchdowns—they're averaging just 2.0 per game, 21st in the NFL. The Bills, even with their injuries, present a formidable defensive matchup, ranking third in defensive pass DVOA and 11th in defensive rush DVOA.

The Bills have been surprisingly conservative in neutral game scripts. Despite their high-scoring affairs, they've been below average in both pace and passing. They've supplemented this with a higher percentage of deep passes, which could be a factor, as it has the past two weeks.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Josh Allen has been setting the league ablaze with his recent performance. He's leading the NFL in completion percentage vs. expectation and xDrive Success Rate, making him arguably the most efficient quarterback in the league right now. His EPA per game ranks him in the top three, and he's thrown for nine touchdowns—second-most through four games. Allen's toned it down from a rushing standpoint, but he's still in the top five among quarterbacks for red zone carries. The Jaguars defense is middling at best, ranking 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt.

On the other side, Trevor Lawrence hasn't found his way yet this season. While he's throwing a lot—the seventh most attempts in the league—his efficiency metrics are far from impressive. He's at or below average on a per-pass, per-drive and per-game basis. He ranks 19th in expected fantasy points per game and 21st in actual fantasy points among quarterbacks. More concerning is his performance under pressure and in the red zone, where his completion percentage ranks outside the top 25 in both categories.