Week 5 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Miami Back on Top

Oct 04, 2023

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

This week we have two huge spreads followed by several smaller ones which makes differentiating from your pool mates a little trickier. Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.

About Pool Genius

PoolGenius is the only site dedicated to helping you win more sports pools. Our tools harness the power of algorithms to analyze the format and rules of the specific pools you enter, project the behavior of your opponents, and identify the picks that give you the best chance to win. Use them yourself at the links below:

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Season Discounts For 2023

Pick'em Pool Breakdown

Before I get into the picks, note I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 5 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.

However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 5 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.

Favorite Favorites

Miami Dolphins vs. Giants

This is the tale of two teams in totally different spots and I’m here for it. New York is coming off a short week at 1-3 and Miami is back home after a tough loss in Buffalo. The Dolphins are 11-point favorites with 81% PoolGenius win odds.

As always, with these big spreads, you’ll win or lose with the majority of your pool, as 99% of the public is taking Miami this week.

Detroit Lions vs. Panthers

Both sides of the ball are clicking for the Lions right now and Jared Goff and company will face a Carolina banged-up secondary. It will be tough sledding for rookie Bryce Young on the road in this one.

Detroit is a 9.5-point home favorite here with Vegas odds currently at 80%, while PoolGenius gives them a 77% chance of victory. Like Miami above, you’ll win or lose with your pool as 99% of the public is picking the Lions in Week 5.

*Honorable Mention: Washington Commanders vs. Bears

Sensibly Priced Favorite

Philadelphia Eagles @ Rams

Matthew Stafford is dealing with a hip injury and the Eagles just have too many weapons to contend with for the Rams both offensively and defensively. Philly keeps rolling this week.

The Eagles are just four-point road favorites in this one with 65% PoolGenius odds. Thirteen percent of the public is taking the Rams in this one, so there is some value here.

Underdog Gamble

Houston Texans @ Falcons

I like red-hot rookie C.J. Stroud, who has yet to throw an interception, to lead the Texans to victory in Atlanta. Desmond Ridder is taking an average of four sacks per game so far and the Falcons have scored in single digits in their last two contests.

Atlanta is favored by two points in this tilt with the Texans getting just 55% win odds via both Vegas and PoolGenius. Only 45% of public pickers are rolling with Houston so if this hits you’ll be sitting pretty.

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Survivor Picks for Week 5

Win Odds: Top 5 Week 5 Picks

Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.

Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):

Miami Dolphins vs. Giants (83%, 11-point favorites)
Detroit Lions vs. Panthers (80%, 9.5-point favorites)
Washington Commanders vs. Bears (70%, 5.5-point favorites)
Buffalo vs. Jaguars (70%, 5.5-point favorites)
Baltimore Ravens @ Steelers (65%, 4-point favorites)

Pick Popularity

Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 5 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):