SharpClarke's Best Week 6 NFL Bet: BAL v. TEN

Oct 13, 2023

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

In this week's matchup breakdown, we travel across the pond (to my homeland, actually) for a matchup between two AFC playoff hopefuls in the Titans and Ravens. The Ravens are perceived to be the stronger team and as they get healthier, bettors and sportsbooks have settled on favoring them by 4 points to win this neutral-field matchup as of Friday morning. Full disclosure: these weekly breakdowns have not performed well to date this season. But, I am still profitable on the season overall and was profitable last season too, so there is a good chance I turn it around. Hopefully, a trip to London here can get us back on track.

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Matchup Breakdown

BAL offense v. TEN defense

The Ravens' offense is finally at full strength. Last week was the first time all season that the offensive line and Mark Andrews were all healthy, which is crucial for an offense built on running the ball and setting up shots downfield. The problem was that the Ravens' receivers dropped key pass after key pass, keeping the Steelers in the game much longer than they should have been in it. Then, in the second half, Lamar Jackson himself played poorly. Because they had failed to build a lead when they were dominating the Steelers early on, they lost the game. Drops are not totally random, of course. There was a little bit of wind in that game, and Jackson does not always throw with touch. But it was a true outlier issue for any team. I expect more connections on deep shots here, especially against a defense that has struggled to defend passes downfield.

I also expect the Ravens to be able to run the ball here. Last week, one angle I liked about the Colts matching up against Tennessee was how a quarterback capable of running can cause an otherwise stout run defense to play with a half-second hesitation up front that can be beneficial for both the quarterback and the running back on any given play. That showed early on, especially on Zach Moss's big 50+ yard touchdown run. But the Colts continued to run well even with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. The Titans' defensive line struggled without Teair Tart, who might return here. But the advantage should continue with Jackson being able to make plays out of structure, both running and passing downfield. The Ravens have played some tough defenses so far this season, and haven't had any bad games on offense. With a healthier squad and another week of Jackson getting comfortable in this new system, I expect continued progression for this offense.

TEN offense v. BAL defense

I am much less optimistic about the Titans' offense. They have been very up-and-down this season, and I think there is a fairly straightforward explanation for that. For years now, they have been an offense that relies on success running the ball to set up play-action and keep Ryan Tannehill clean. When the running game fails, it puts too much on a passing game that lacks elite playmakers or a quarterback who can create out of structure. They have played two defenses with an elite success rate against the run: the Browns (33%) and the Saints (also 33%). The Titans had a 35% success rate running against New Orleans, putting up only 15 points in a loss. They had a 27.3% success rate running against the Browns, scoring 3 points in a blowout loss. But against the Chargers (allowing 45.5% success rate), they had a 41.2% success rate in an overtime win, and against the Bengals (allowing a 45.8% success rate), they dominated with a 47.1% rushing success rate. The Colts were middle of the pack (at 41.9%), and they ran successfully 38.1% of the time in a close loss.

The Titans don't have a strong offensive line, and Derrick Henry, in particular, needs room to work. That's why their numbers have tracked the quality of the opponent faced so closely. Here, the Ravens have allowed only a 33.9% success rate on the ground and are as healthy as they've been all season. I expect plenty of third-and-long situations for Tennesse, who will need to throw downfield to DeAndre Hopkins (with Treylon Burks out). This will be tough against a secondary featuring a healthy Marlon Humphrey now. Hopkins will need to make some more miracle catches to keep drives alive. I have my doubts. I think in a zig-zagging season on the offensive side of the ball, this is a low spot for Tennessee.

Market Evaluation

This line opened closer to BAL -3, but it has been bet up to BAL -4. On top of the team quality and matchup angles, there could be a major advantage here for the Ravens based on their travel schedule. Data is not sufficient to prove the optimal way to prepare for a game in London, but I suspect that there is something to the belief that getting there early and acclimating can be helpful. Baltimore traveled to London right away and has been practicing there this week. The Titans flew overnight to arrive Friday morning. If this is an angle that impacts the outcome of this game, it can only favor Baltimore. Given all of that, I expect the market to rise even a little further before kickoff.

Best Bet

Because of that anticipation, I would bet this now. Even since I started writing, one more book (Betonline) has moved from -4 to -4.5. But there are plenty of books still offering BAL -4 -110, and that's a good bet, in my opinion. My median projected outcome for this matchup is closer to 7 for Baltimore due to the difference in quality between these teams and the way they matchup. So I'll snatch up the bet, available currently at DraftKings, Circa, Caesars, and Bet365.

BAL -4 (-110) (DraftKings, Caesars, Circa, Bet365, etc.)