Week 8 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Ravens Victorious in Bird Battle

Oct 25, 2023

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

We have six games with spreads of more than a touchdown in Week 8, so there are plenty of options to choose from. With the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, I’ll select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.

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Week 7 Recap

Let’s just forget about last week, shall we? My picks went 1-3 as the Bills, Raiders, and Packers all lost as favorites. That brings my total so far to 7-5 since starting this column in Week 5.

Pick'em Pool Breakdown

Before I get into the picks, note I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 8 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.

However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 8 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.

Favorite Favorites

Baltimore Ravens @ Cardinals

Sometimes you have to take the easy road and this game appears to be a beautiful six-lane cruiser. The Ravens are 8.5-point favorites in this matchup, with 78% Vegas win odds. Lamar Jackson is dialed in and has the weapons around him for success while Arizona is headed in the opposite direction.

The public is rolling with Baltimore 97% of the time so you will succeed or fail with most of your poolmates.

Miami Dolphins vs. Patriots

The Dolphins are a different animal (not exactly, but you get it) at home, winning each of their contests this year by an average of 28.7 points in South Florida. It was nice of the Patriots to get Bill Belichick his 300th win last week but it will be a different outcome in Week 8.

Miami boasts an 8.5-point spread coming into this contest with 80% Vegas odds to prevail. You’ll win or lose this with your pool mates, as 98% of them are picking the Dolphins.

*Bonus Favorite: Detroit Lions vs. Raiders (8.5-point spread, 79% win odds & 97% public backing)

Sensibly Priced Favorites

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Bears

The Chargers have been sloppy since coming out of the bye, but this should be a get-right game for Justin Herbert and his offense. Rookie Tyson Bagent will falter on the road thanks to former Bear Khalil Mack.

Los Angeles is an eight-point favorite in this matchup, with Vegas odds of victory currently set at 79%. The public is backing the Chargers 92% of the time, which is high, but not as high as similar spreads like Buffalo (97%) or Kansas City (97%).

Value Pick

New York Jets @ Giants

The Jets are coming off a week of rest with some prior improvement from QB Zach Wilson. The Giants don’t have the defensive answers for Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall and their offense should be shut down by a stout Jets unit. The spread has the road team favored by a field goal with 58% PoolGenius win odds.

Only 75% of bettors are selecting the Jets this week so there is some value in the pick.

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Survivor Picks for Week 8

Win Odds: Top 5 Week 8 Picks

Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.

Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):

Miami Dolphins vs. Patriots (80%, 8.5-point favorites)
L.A. Chargers vs. Bears (79%, 8-point favorites)
Detroit Lions vs. Raiders (79%, 8.5-point favorites)
Buffalo Bills vs. Buccaneers (79%, 8-point favorites)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cardinals (78%, 8.5-point favorites)

Pick Popularity

Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 8 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):