2024 NFL Futures Bets: Hunter's Longshots, Win Totals, & More

Jul 31, 2024

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Its finally that time of the year. The post-4th of July lull where the only major sport on is Major League Baseball. To me, baseball is the hardest of the major sports to bet on, so I tend to turn my attention to scanning the NFL futures sections of sportsbooks, looking for anything that piques my interest. Over the past week, I’ve been adding everything that’s caught my eye to a spreadsheet, and it's time to share these plays with all of you as the overall betting market continues to shift to an NFL focus.

Before you start firing away, I want to give everyone a little bit of background on my futures bets and what to expect going forward before Week 1 kicks off. I started doing thirty NFL futures bets a few years ago and usually drop the whole list of plays on my birthday every July. This year, I will still do thirty NFL futures, but I will be sending them in groups of up to five a day until all thirty are sent out. If I find more that I like after thirty bets have been sent, I will still send them, but they will be more sporadic.

The other point I want to note is that my process for NFL betting is better on a game-to-game basis, as part of what I do incorporates player grading and individual stats. While I do like searching for futures bets, I want to throw some caution out there to not go too wild. It’s a long season, and there will be many plays coming. Without further adieu, let's get started with my first batch of five longshot NFL futures:

2024 NFL Longshot Futures Bets

Bet #1: Aidan Hutchinson Defensive Player of the Year (+1600 FD, fine to +1400)

Aidan already put in top ten pass-rushing statistics last year, including being #2 in total pressures of any kind, #5 in pass-rush win percentage, and #8 in PFF’s pass-rush productivity stat. So rightfully, Aidan is already priced as a top 10 Defensive Player of the Year candidate. However, part of the equation is the narrative around the actual individual player. The Lions invested heavily in their defensive line this off-season, bringing in Marcus Davenport and D.J. Reader to take the pressure off the shoulders of Hutchinson being the sole focus during key plays. I am projecting Detroit’s defense taking a large step forward this season and will be headlined by the relentless pass-rush skills of Aidan Hutchinson.

Risk: .1 units to win 1.6 units

Bet #2: Trey Hendrickson Defensive Player of the Year (+7500 FD, good to +5000)

I decided to take two stabs at the Defensive Player of the Year apple in 2024. The second one is mostly because the Trey Hendrickson price should have been shorter than it is today (+7500). Last year, Trey put up some incredible pass rush numbers, like being #6 in pass rush win pct and #2 in PFF’s pass rush productivity. Cincinnati also plays the 4th-easiest schedule this year, which may aid in making their defense look ‘much improved’ and forcing the narrative of the defense being worthy of a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. While Trey may not be as elite as Micah Parsons, Miles Garrett, and Nick Bosa, he deserves to be priced in the +3000 to +4000 range in 2024.

Risk: .1 units to win 7.5 units

Bet #3: Bijan Robinson Offensive Player of the Year +2000 (FD and is widely available at most popular books, good to +1500)

On a game-by-game basis, running backs don’t generally move the needle much for me. Running game success is much more dependent on the strength of the opponent and offensive line play than the running back himself. That said, in 2024, I want a stake in Bijan Robinson winning Offensive Player of the Year. Atlanta appears set up to have the overall easiest schedule in the NFL in 2024 by a wide margin, so I expect them to lean on Bijan Robinson early and to often have a lead. Bijan also has the talent to be a top NFL running back, and last year lacked the coaching philosophy to prove it. Enter Zac Robinson, who comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, with Bijan Robinson ready to step in as his Christian McCaffrey. Bijan also appears to have full commitment from Head Coach Raheem Morris, who has had glowing reviews of Robinson all off-season, including the following from an Athletic interview with Robert Mays: “It starts with the run. Bijan Robinson’s exciting, let’s not kid ourselves. It starts with the run and that up front crew and the toughness that they play with and they displayed last year and how they get off the ball. And then you see the talent in Bijan.”

Risk: .1 units to win 2 units

Bet #4: Shane Steichen Coach of the Year +1600 (DK and Circa, good to +1400 which is available at most books)

Coach of the Year is largely an award given based on what NFL team vastly outperforms their win total and/or who can win with a tough quarterback situation. I may get front run on another futures bet of mine, but I believe Steichen has a shot to win the award with both his starting QB and backup QB this year. Indianapolis is set up with the sixth easiest schedule in 2024 and brought in an upgrade at the backup QB position should Richardson miss any time. Anthony Richardson (.058 adjusted EPA/play) and Joe Flacco (.048 adjusted EPA/play) will provide better results than what Steichen was able to piece together with turnover machine Gardner Minshew (.033 adjusted EPA/play). On the other side of the ball, the Colts have the 8th best defense by my numbers and selected an immediate impact player in Laiatu Latu to bolster an already great defensive line.

Risk: .1 units to win 1.6 units

Bet #5: DK Metcalf Most Regular Season Receiving Yards +4000 (Bet365, FD has +5000 good to +3000)

Since 2020, Seattle has ranked the following in offensive plays per game: 23rd, 32nd, 22nd, 32nd. In 2020, DK Metcalf finished 7th in receiving yards despite the offense's 22nd-slowest pace. Enter Ryan Grubb, who was the offensive coordinator for the best NCAA passing attack in 2023, with Huskies star wide receiver Rome Odunze leading all players in receiving yards. The Huskies also finished 9th overall in passing percentage. Granted, it was pass-happy PAC-12, but I still expect Seattle to play with a more creative, pass-first playcalling scheme than we have seen in the past. Geno Smith may not be an elite QB, but he still finished 11th overall in Completion Percentage Over Expectation so he can at least get the ball to his targets consistently. There is a reason DK’s odds are as long as they are, but he still has the talent and big play ability to take a dart throw here.

Risk: .1 units to win 4 units