Chris Godwin Is A Strong Value At ADP in 2024

When a quarterback has a career year - as Baker Mayfield did in 2023 - it is expected that the exceptional performance props up the receiving stats of his top pass-catchers. In theory, this is completely logical. The more passing attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns thrown by a quarterback increase the size of the passing pie from which his receivers can eat. Unfortunately, Baker Mayfield forgot to bring Chris Godwin along with him to the table last season, relegating Godwin to perhaps the worst season of his career. In 2024, with fantasy football managers' confidence in Godwin now shaken, can the 28-year-old receiver get back on track after falling to an ADP of WR34 and 73rd overall?

Click here for more 2024 Player Profiles!

Baker Mayfield’s 2023 Gains Were Chris Godwin’s Losses

In 2023, Baker Mayfield set career-highs in pass attempts, passing yards, completion percentage, passing touchdowns, air yards, and passing yards after the catch. Despite being second on the Buccaneers in targets (130, second-most of his career and only six behind Mike Evans), Godwin arguably had the worst full season of his career. He barely crossed 1,000 receiving yards in 17 games (1,023). His two touchdowns continued a five-year pattern of a drop in scores. Godwin had fewer receiving touchdowns than all of Cade Otton, Trey Palmer, and Rachaad White, and only had one more than third-string tight end Ko Kieft.

His 63.8% catch rate was his lowest since he only started five games in 2018. Godwin averaged a full two receptions less per game in 2023 (4.9 catches) than he did in both 2021 (7.0) and 2022 (6.9). Simply put, it was a mostly miserable year and Godwin finished WR31 in half-PPR total fantasy points and WR38 in points per game. With Mayfield playing so well, just what was the glitch in the matrix that didn’t allow Godwin to excel like teammate Mike Evans did (1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns)?

Chris Godwin Played Out of Position in 2023

The simplest explanation for his struggles combines the fact that Godwin played out of position for much of last season and was not well-suited to the changes Offensive Coordinator Dave Canales and Baker Mayfield made to the passing game. Godwin is a career slot receiver but played there just 32% of the time in 2023 (26th among all wide receivers). Compare that to 2022 and 2021 when he played 58% of his snaps in the slot position and ranked fourth overall at wide receiver.

Dave Canales was trying to get Godwin outside to take advantage of the new high-air yards, YOLO strategy of the Tampa Bay offense last season. Mayfield ranked first in deep ball attempts, third in air yards, and fifth in air yards per attempt. The deep ball was the number one play call for Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ passing game on many occasions in 2023. That led to 10.8 yards per completion for Tampa Bay (eighth in the league). It led to 13 touchdowns for Mike Evans. But that’s not Chris Godwin’s game.

Chris Godwin’s Move Back Into the Slot Makes Him a 2024 Value at ADP

The plan under new Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen is to move Chris Godwin back into the slot on almost a full–time basis. Godwin himself has already spoken in camp about how it is a “lot of fun” to be back in the slot role, acknowledging the fact that he felt out of place last year. His fantasy production certainly backs that up as Godwin’s best years have clearly correlated with him playing more inside in the slot receiver role.

Chris Godwin is officially back in the slot🔥



PPG finish vs. Slot snap % (via @rotounderworld):

2023: WR38 / 32.1%

2022: WR14 / 57.6%

2021: WR9 / 57.5%

2020: WR15 / 55.8%



Screaming value at ADP WR34. pic.twitter.com/SMVA3tLCX5

— Victoria (@ffb_victoria) July 25, 2024

The Buccanneers now have rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan to play on the outside opposite of Mike Evans, so Godwin should be free to roam the underneath and intermediate route areas should the deep balls not be there for Baker Mayfield this year. It will be difficult for the Buccaneers to repeat that level of success so far down the field in 2024. Despite the overwhelming volume, Baker Mayfield’s 29.1% completion rate on deep passes in 2023 was only 31st among quarterbacks. There is some touchdown regression coming for players like Mayfield and Mike Evans, and the new offensive plan seems intent on scheming for Godwin to have a larger role, taking advantage of his versatility.

As the 34th wide receiver off the board this draft season, he is barely being drafted as a WR3 in 12-team fantasy football leagues. There is plenty of room for a strong return on investment at that price tag. With three straight seasons of WR2 production before his outlier 2023 season, Godwin has proven he has the talent and opportunity to finish in that range again.

The Bottom Line

• Despite Baker Mayfield’s strong campaign in 2023, Chris Godwin had his worst fantasy season since he became a full-time starter in 2019, causing his ADP to fall to WR34 this year.

• Godwin still had 130 targets in 2023 (second-most in his career), but he played out of position under Offensive Coordinator Dave Canales and was asked to play out wide and catch deep passes. That is not the strongest part of Godwin’s skill set.

• Chris Godwin will move back into the slot full-time in 2024, which is where he generated three straight seasons of WR2 status. This move makes him a tremendous value at his ADP, considering he is still a top-two receiving option for one of the pass-friendliest teams in the league.