Don't Sleep on James Conner in Fantasy Football

There are a lot of flashy, exciting players in fantasy football. Cardinals running back James Conner, unfortunately, is not on that list. Despite being nothing but consistent for his entire career, Conner has not earned the same respect as some of his peers because of his efficient but unstimulating playstyle, which has also impacted the way he is viewed by fantasy managers. In this article, I’ll be advocating for why Conner is underpriced at his ADP of RB23 and 77th overall.

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2023 Season in Review

Conner has been quietly dominant his entire career, and last year was no exception. He finished the season as the RB10 in fantasy points per game, running for a career-high 1,040 yards and scoring nine total touchdowns. Looking a little further back, Conner has finished as a top-24 fantasy running back in points per game in five of the past six seasons, including top-10 finishes in 2018, 2021, and 2023. Since entering the league, he ranks top-15 among running backs in rushing yards and fifth in touchdowns.

Unlike other players in his draft class who have clearly lost their juice, (Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Austin Ekeler, etc.), Conner proved that he is still capable of producing at an elite level — last season, he ranked fifth among all running backs in PFF rushing grade, forced the third most missed tackles in the NFL, and ranked second in yards after contact per attempt. Conner has less mileage than most typical bellcow running backs, and I’m confident that the dreaded running back age cliff is still a few years away for him.

Conner in the Cardinals' Offense

The Cardinals made some promising moves this off-season to retool their offense, mainly through the draft. They drafted Ohio State phenom Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth pick of the draft to walk in as their de facto No. 1 receiver. They also added Florida State running back Trey Benson in the third round, who will presumably compete with Conner for some volume out of the backfield. With that being said, I’m not too worried about Benson eating into Conner’s workload when they are both on the field. Rookie running backs taken in the third round or later very rarely replace the previous season's starter their first year — since 2018, the only exceptions to that have been Brian Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, who took the starting role from less traditional running backs in Antonio Gibson and Cordarrelle Patterson, respectively.

It is important to note that injury concerns are present with Conner. In the last four seasons, he has played 13, 13, 15, and 13 games, so you can count on him to miss a few weeks due to minor injuries here and there. However, Conner has (knock on wood) never suffered a serious long-term injury that caused him to miss more than half of a season, so he should still be relatively dependable in fantasy this year.

Assessing Conner’s Floor and Ceiling

I think Conner has a pretty high floor all things considered. He has seen at least 180 carries in all three of his seasons with the Cardinals, and I would pencil him in for about 200 again this year with Benson getting around 100-120. On that volume alone, Conner should be able to return on investment as the RB23. He probably won’t win you any weeks in this reality, but will be a reliable and consistent lower-end RB2.

On the brighter side, I truly believe Conner has a weekly RB1 ceiling in fantasy this year. As a whole, I feel like the Cardinals offense is being underrated because of their putrid output last season. When healthy, Kyler Murray is still one of the best 10 or so quarterbacks in the NFL, and has always been a rising tide for fantasy. Throw in an electric receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr. and the Cardinals could be a legitimate top-10 offense that gets into a lot of shootouts because of their poor defense. If that is the case, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Conner continue his end zone dominance and put up another double-digit touchdown season. Paired that with his guaranteed volume, and Conner feels like a steal in the seventh or eighth round of drafts.

The “running back dead zone” is something that gets talked about a lot in fantasy. If you’re unfamiliar, the RB dead zone essentially describes a group of running backs every year going in the middle rounds that seemingly never work out in fantasy. The bulk of deadzone running backs are prospective starters stuck on bad offenses, leading to low fantasy output. This year, I think there is a clear dead zone tier that consists of guys like Rhamondre Stevenson, Zamir White, Najee Harris, and Jonathon Brooks. If you look at ADP, however, in the middle of that group is Conner, who feels like he is being typecast as a dead-zone running back. Given the Cardinals' offensive upside and Conner’s floor-ceiling combo, I’d gladly take him above that tier and would be very satisfied with him as my RB2 on a WR-heavy roster build.

The Bottom Line

• Conner has quietly been one of the most consistent running backs in fantasy football in the last few years. He is coming off a great 2023 season where he proved to still have plenty of juice left.
• The Cardinals made upgrades to their offense in the off-season, including adding running back Trey Benson who will compete with Conner for touches. Conner has also been a little banged up throughout his career, frequently missing a few games each year.
• Conner has a rather safe floor in fantasy thanks to his volume. It is unlikely that Benson takes the starting role from him barring a major injury, so Conner should be able to return low-end RB2 value simply by staying healthy and involved in the Cardinals offense.
• Conner’s upside is quite high because of the Cardinals’ exciting offensive upside. I am happily selecting Conner at his ADP of RB23 and 77th overall, and prefer him to several of the dead zone running backs going above him.