Evan Engram's Massive Reception Total Needs Context

Evan Engram had the quietest 114-catch season in recent memory. That was the fourth-most receptions in the league behind only CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill. And he’s going off the board at a very reasonable TE8, a full round behind the TE7 George Kittle. I’d like to tell you that he’s an absolute smash pick at his ADP. But unfortunately, I think the price is fair and Engram’s reception volume needs a lot of context.

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Inefficient on a Low aDoT

The first thing that stands out about Engram’s 114-catch season is that he failed to hit 1,000 receiving yards. The first part of that equation was his very low target depth. His 5-yard aDoT was the fourth-lowest among 44-qualifying TEs last season and more than two yards below the average.

Part of the reason for his low aDoT was the designed looks the Jaguars schemed for him. Engram had 24 targets at or behind the line of scrimmage, which was the second-most among all TEs according to SIS. And those designed looks…really did not work. On those targets, he managed -0.40 EPA per target. That was the fourth-worst among TEs with at least 10 of these targets.

The second part of the low-receiving-yard equation was Engram’s limited yards after the catch (YAC). What I found when looking at The Most Predictable Tight End Stats was that athleticism was particularly important for forecasting TE fantasy points. The proxy for athleticism that is most predictive is broken and missed tackles per reception (BT+MT/Rec). We see the best outcomes in future seasons when a TE hits a 15% avoided tackle rate. Unfortunately, Engram hit a below-average 12.3% in 2023. And that resulted in a below-average YAC per reception of 4.6 yards.

YAC and aDoT are inversely correlated. It’s more difficult for receivers with a deeper target depth to generate additional yardage after the catch. And with that in mind, it’s troubling when your TE has both a low aDoT and poor YAC. The list of TEs in Engram’s aDoT range with below-average YAC per reception is not one you want to be on. It’s just Engram, Connor Heyward, and Tanner Hudson. With that context, it’s not surprising that Engram had the fourth-lowest yards per reception in 2023 to go along with a relatively average 1.56 yards per route run (YPRR) and 7.6% first downs per route run (1DRR).

Additional Injury-Related Context for Evan Engram

In addition to Engram’s very low aDoT and below-average YAC, there was one other contextual element to his 2023 season. Christian Kirk missed the final five games of the season with an injury. And that split was particularly stark for Engram. In the first 12 games with Kirk on the field, Engram averaged 7.6 targets per game. Without Kirk in those final five games, that shot up to 10.4 targets per game. While 7.6 targets per game is still excellent, it doesn’t look quite as compelling as his top-line 114 targets would suggest. If extrapolated over the full season, 7.6 targets per game would’ve been fourth among TEs last season, falling behind T.J. Hockenson, Travis Kelce, and David Njoku.

What We Want to See in 2024

So far, this article has been pretty negative. Let’s change that by looking at three positive things for Engram going into 2024. The first is related to Trevor Lawrence’s pass locations. Passes over the middle of the field are more efficient than passes to the boundaries. The graph below shows passing EPA per dropback for middle-of-the-field passes on the x-axis and outside passes on the y-axis. Like most QBs, Lawrence was more efficient on his passes in the middle last season. Unfortunately, only 90 of Lawrence’s 564 passes were to the middle of the field (16%), compared to about 21% for the sample of QBs included in the graph.

These looks were particularly difficult to come by for Engram. According to SIS, Engram managed only five targets with an above-average target depth over the middle of the field last season. For context, Travis Kelce had 34 of these looks. Engram ultimately ranked 41st in these targets among TEs despite leading the position in total targets. There is upside for Engram if the Jaguars notice and rectify this trend.

The second positive note is related to Engram’s touchdowns. Engram’s 3.5% TD rate was well below average in 2023. And fortunately for Engram, that stat is not consistent with a correlation of only 0.11 year-over-year for TEs. So, there is some hope that his TD rate will bounce back in 2024.

And finally, the third positive note for Engram is that there isn’t a massive threat to changing volume in 2024. Calvin Ridley was also a target-hog in the Jaguars offense last year, finishing only eight targets behind Engram’s large total. And Ridley was even more of an air yards hog, earning 38% of the team’s air yards compared to Engram’s 14%. With Calvin Ridley signing a massive contract with the Titans, the Jaguars brought in Gabe Davis and spent a first-round pick on Brian Thomas Jr. Thomas profiles as the Calvin Ridley replacement and should have a high-aDoT role in the offense. But there is no guarantee Thomas will be successful right away, which should let Engram keep his high-volume role.

Bottom Line

• Evan Engram’s 114-catch season in 2023 requires a lot of context given his very low 5-yard aDoT combined with his below-average YAC per reception.

• Moreover, Engram earned about three additional targets per game when Christian Kirk was sidelined with injury.

• Some positive potential for 2024 include Trevor Lawrence passing more over the middle of the field, a bounce back in Engram’s TD rate, and opportunity stemming from Calvin Ridley joining the Titans.

• I’m fine with Engram at ADP and then stacked with Trevor Lawrence. The market isn’t making you pay for his headline reception-total in 2023. He’s a comfy security blanket of a TE when you’ve missed out on the elite options.

• Engram is more of a priority in full-PPR and especially TE-premium leagues given how important sheer reception volume is to his fantasy point scoring.