The Fantasy Football Impact of D'Andre Swift to the Chicago Bears
The free agent RB market is packed with names this offseason and signings are off to a fast start with the legal tampering period beginning on March 11th. The Chicago Bears agreed to terms with D'Andre Swift on a three-year deal worth $24 million as one of the earliest of the free agent RBs to find a new home.
Let’s dive into the fantasy football implications of Swift’s move to the Windy City.
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D’Andre Swift’s Fantasy Career
First, let’s look back at Swift’s time in the NFL in fantasy football terms before assessing what’s next for the former UGA back. Drafted by the Lions in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Swift dealt with injuries that sidelined him for 10 contests in his tenure with Detroit, but he finished as a fantasy RB2 in half-PPR scoring on a per-game basis in every season from 2020-2022.
Last year as an Eagle, Swift began the year somewhat buried in a crowded backfield but emerged as their RB1 to post 1,049 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 229 carries, despite the presence of Jalen Hurts who doesn’t tend to favor pass-catching backs, and the “tush push” vulturing a chunk of goal line usage. Swift ended as the RB24 in half-PPR points per contest and has the ability to build on that as he enters his age-26 season on a new team that likes to run the ball.
How D’Andre Swift Fits Into the Bears' Offense
It’s still unclear who will be under center for Chicago, but Swift will join a crowded RB room comprised of Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. He’ll presumably come in as the lead back given the size of his contract but if the Bears struggle on offense as they have in recent years, Swift’s fantasy value could take a hit.
A sizable role as a receiver would likely be needed to elevate his fantasy value beyond a low-end RB2. The good news is that Herbert (4.6 YPC) and Johnson (4.3 YPC) both ran pretty well for the Bears last season, however, neither eclipsed 40 targets which leaves plenty of room for Swift to be involved in the passing game, particularly if there’s a rookie QB at the helm. In his first three years in Detroit, Swift averaged 68.3 targets per contest but saw just 49 in 2023, in part due to the Brotherly Shove.
If he is somewhere in the 45-50 target range in 2024, a high-end RB2 outcome is a possibility, particularly in any type of PPR format.
What the Move Means for the Rest of the Chicago Backfield
The addition of Swift isn’t great news for both incumbent rushers as they’ll likely compete for the RB2 spot for the Bears in 2024. The “winner” will be a late-round fantasy pick while the other will likely be relegated to flier status in best ball, along with a spot on the waiver wire in redraft leagues.
Consider Swift an RB2 with passing-catching upside in PPR formats heading into the season. His Underdog ADP is currently 103.9 as RB31 which could rise a bit with the signing. Herbert and Johnson should be valued in the RB3/4 range and are currently being drafted as the RB44 and RB38, respectively, possibly taking small hits with Swift now a member of the Bears.
Bottom Line
- D'Andre Swift landing in Chicago isn't the best outcome for the 25-year-old in terms of possible fantasy production but there’s still a path to success in 2024.
- Swift is coming off the best production of his four-year career and was able to stay healthy for 16 contests in Philly.
- A large role in the receiving game will be needed to elevate Swift beyond a fantasy RB2 outcome, but it’s entirely possible particularly if there’s a rookie QB under center for Chicago.
- Consider Swift an RB2 with upside (RB16 in 4for4’s early rankings), while Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson fall more in line as fantasy RB3/4s.
