Rashee Rice's Upside Outweighs Legal Issues

After a stellar rookie year for the Super Bowl-winning Chiefs, it was an offseason to forget for WR Rashee Rice. His legal troubles were atop the headlines for way too many news cycles in the offseason and his ADP tanked. Now that it is back on the rise to WR37, is there still enough room for upside?

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Rookie Year Review

It took a while for Rashee Rice to develop into a full-time player for the Chiefs, as he didn’t start seeing above 68% of routes until Week 12. However, even before he was a full-time player he was a useful fantasy asset putting up 50 yards or a touchdown in eight of 10 games after a slow first two weeks. After he became a full-time player he averaged 9.2 targets in the final five games. Plus, 8.25 targets in the playoffs.

While the targets are great, he was also very successful after getting the full-time role as he was 13th amongst receivers with 2.7 yards per route run in the final five games. While his aDot was only 4.7 yards, he did finish seventh in yards (518) and first in yards after the catch.

All this adds up to the potential WR1 on an offense with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. It’s a great position to be in with 2024 Patrick Mahomes. Defenses have largely taken away the ability for the Chiefs to go deep and Rice has proven to be a reliable safety blanket alongside Travis Kelce.

The Role of Rashee Rice in the Offense

With the additions the Chiefs made this offseason bringing in Hollywood Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy, is Rice guaranteed to be the WR1 again? It’s not something we know for sure, but it has been a few years since we’ve seen Brown in a WR1 role and we aren’t quite sure what role Worthy will have out of the gate.

That said, Brown and Worthy have similar skill sets and win in similar ways through their speed. We know Rice can win underneath, but could we see an expansion of his role beyond just underneath?

As things stand, Brown is going as WR32, Rice as WR37, and Worthy as WR38 on Underdog, but that feels like a large suspension is built in for Rice to be going that late.

Legal Liability

So this is really the biggest question surrounding Rice for 2024. How long will a potential suspension be and will it be served in 2024?

For the first part of the question, the answer is it probably would have been longer if his second legal battle - punching a photographer at a Dallas club - hadn’t been resolved already as the victim declined to press charges. The NFL tends to suspend immediately or wait for the legal process to play out, and with that in mind, his court date for the high-speed hit-and-run crash and marijuana possession isn’t until December 9, 2024.

That brings us to the second part of the question. If we know the NFL tends to wait for the legal process to play out before handing down a suspension, it’s quite possible Rice won’t get a suspension for 2024. Remember, Alvin Kamara had off-season issues at the Pro Bowl in February of 2022 and didn’t serve his three-game suspension until 2023.

With that in mind, you’re likely getting a discount on the WR1 in a Patrick Mahomes offense due to fear he’ll be suspended when there’s a track record of the league waiting.

The Bottom Line

• It all comes down to his suspension for Rahsee Rice and the longer there is no news, the more likely it becomes the suspension isn’t coming in 2024.

• People have already begun to buy the dip as Rice’s ADP is up 10 spots since the beginning of July.

• With the addition of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, there is more target competition, but also legitimate receivers to take the pressure off of him.

• It took a while for Rice to become a full-time player, but once he did he was WR8 in full PPR scoring the final five weeks.

• Going as the second or third receiver on the Chiefs, Rice is a strong buy at cost. As the price continues to rise, he becomes slightly riskier.