Tyjae Spears Projects as an Excellent Mid-Round RB

The Tennessee Titans made some of the most compelling personnel and coaching changes this offseason. On the personnel side, they moved away from their workhorse running back Derrick Henry who signed a deal with the Baltimore Ravens. They also signed Calvin Ridley to a massive 4-year, $92M contract to pair him with DeAndre Hopkins. On the coaching staff side, they moved on from their head coach of six years, Mike Vrabel. In his place is Brian Callahan who was most recently the offensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals. Tyjae Spears stands to benefit greatly from both these personnel and coaching staff changes.

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Tyjae Spears’ Rookie Season

Coming into the 2023 NFL Draft, the primary knock on Spears was his injury history. He had suffered two torn ACLs in the past, and at the NFL Combine, tests revealed that he does not have an ACL in one of his knees and that he has arthritis. However, the Titans felt comfortable enough with his medicals to select him in the third round at pick 81 overall. With the exception of his injury history, Spears was an excellent prospect. As shown in the graph below, Spears was a particularly good receiving prospect, ranking in the 66th percentile for both receiving yards per game and yards per route run (YPRR). In addition, he showed an elite ability to avoid tackles, ranking in the 96th percentile for elusiveness.

Both of these traits showed up during his first season in the NFL. What I found when looking at The Most Predictable Running Back Stats was receiving statistics dominate the most predictive variables for future RB fantasy points. Receiving yards per game was particularly predictive, where RBs with more than 20 receiving yards per game were more likely to have massive fantasy seasons in the following year. Spears finished 2023 with about 23 receiving yards per game.

And while not as important as receiving volume, I found that we still want our fantasy RBs to be both efficient and explosive. Again, Spears checked these boxes during his rookie season. The benchmarks for positive future outcomes were an explosive run rate of about 12%, yards after contact per attempt above 2.75 yards, and an avoided tackle rate of over 20%. In 2023, Spears hit 13%, 3.15 yards, and 26% in those stats, respectively. Easily the biggest knock on his rookie season was his very low six rushing attempts per game. But as mentioned, Spears stands to benefit from the Titans’ offseason decisions.

Titans Offensive Outlook

With the departure of Derrick Henry, we should see Spears’ rushing volume increase dramatically during his sophomore season. The team did add Tony Pollard in the offseason, but he had a very disappointing season relative to his high expectations in 2023. And simply put, there is only one Derrick Henry. More interesting are the changes we could see in the Titans’ offensive philosophy.

The graph below shows pass rate over expected (PROE) on the x-axis and how much that PROE fluctuated on a weekly basis on the y-axis. And I’ve circled both the Titans and the Bengals. As you can see, the Titans were one of the six most run-heavy teams in the NFL last year and they were very consistent in that approach. Alternatively, the Bengals were second in PROE, falling only behind the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Signing the Bengals’ offensive coordinator, moving on from Derrick Henry, and giving Calvin Ridley a massive contract, all point in one direction: The Titans are going to pass the ball more in 2024.

With that in mind, the graph below shows completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on the x-axis and average air yards per attempt on the y-axis. Again, the Titans and Bengals occupy opposite corners of the graph. Will Levis wasn’t especially accurate in 2023 but at least wasn’t outlier-level bad. What was an outlier was his air yards per attempt. On average, he threw the ball about two yards farther down the field than any other starting QB in the league. Meanwhile, both Joe Burrow and his injury-replacement Jake Browning were in the bottom five in air yards per attempt. Given that this trend held for both Burrow and Browning, it seems likely that Brian Callahan’s system will bring Levis’ air yards per attempt down significantly in 2024.

Why Tyjae Spears?

So, we have an RB who delivered great receiving production during his rookie season. And that was in an environment where the typical pass depth was far beyond his route tree. Moreover, that was in one of the most run-heavy systems in the NFL. Now that same RB will most likely play in a system that heavily emphasizes the pass, particularly in the shallower areas of the field where he operates. And by the way, one of the best running backs in the league Derrick Henry is no longer on his team.

Additionally, one of the best reasons to draft Spears is his extremely reasonable ADP. At the moment, he is the 107th player drafted on Underdog and the 31st RB off the board. Given the ever-rising prices of WRs in best ball, selecting the right middle-round RBs is a crucial element to success. Spears getting drafted in the ninth round is the perfect spot for a high-upside RB to pair with your early-round WRs, elite QB, and elite TE.

Bottom Line

• Tyjae Spears’ rookie season cleared the benchmarks we care about for future fantasy success. Those include his 23 receiving yards per game, 13% explosive run rate, 3.15 yards after contact per attempt, and 26% avoided tackle rate.

• The departure of Derrick Henry opens up rushing volume potential, while the hire of Brian Callahan signals a focus on short-area passing where Spears operates.

• At a very reasonable RB31 price tag, Spears pairs extremely well with heavy-WR builds in both best ball and redraft leagues.