10 Things You Need to Know About Week 11 for Fantasy Football

So much of fantasy football is reacting to situations outside your control and giving your team the best shot to win anyway. The most frustrating of those situations is injuries. In my home league, for example, I drafted A.J. Brown and Nico Collins in the first two rounds. Week 11 will be the second time this season that both players suited up on the same week. Today’s focus is on how NFL teams have reacted to injury situations and how we can take advantage of those changes in fantasy football.

Jauan Jennings is Good at Football

One of my favorite players in the league, Brandon Aiyuk, was placed on Injured Reserve after Week 7. And while Jauan Jennings missed the 49ers game against Dallas with a hip injury, he absolutely crushed in his return last week. His 11 targets were four more than any other 49ers receiver. And he turned those targets into seven receptions and 93 yards. What’s particularly interesting about Jennings’ Week 10 performance was his alignment. From head coach Kyle Shanahan, it was “his first time playing X and he’ll be doing that the rest of the year”.

So, Jennings is the 1-for-1 replacement for Aiyuk in the X-WR role going forward. And this makes some sense despite it being a new role for Jennings. He’s been a more efficient target earner against man coverage than zone in his career and was great on out-breaking routes in Week 10. Now, I don’t think Jennings will out-target the likes of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey to this extent every week. But on the season, he’s now WR7 in first downs per route run and WR4 in yards per route run, according to Jacob Gibbs. He’s a flex player moving forward.

Vikings: Look at 2-TE Sets for Some Optimism?

Lately, it hasn’t quite been the same Vikings offense we saw earlier this season. The interceptions are the most glaring image from their box scores, with Sam Darnold throwing five picks in his last two games. I think the more damaging thing for the offense is the 53 pressures that Darnold has faced since the Vikings’ bye, which is fifth among all QBs. The situation definitely hasn’t improved after losing their left tackle Christian Darrisaw for the rest of the season in Week 8. But they did get T.J. Hockenson back at essentially the same time.

The Vikings have responded to those injury impacts by using more 2-TE sets. And they’ve had some success doing it. The graph below shows the percentage of passing attempts with two TEs on the field on the x-axis and EPA per attempt on the y-axis. And it’s filtered just for the last two weeks. The Vikings are dead-center on the graph. But this is a big increase compared to earlier in the season when they used 2-TE sets on only 15.8% of attempts, according to SIS. And their EPA per attempt on 2-TE pass attempts was significantly higher than in lighter packages in Week 10. Facing more pressure, Hockenson is a great safety net for Darnold and a means to get layup throws to the middle of the field. We might see some high target shares for him moving forward.

Bengals: One-Upping the Vikings

With Zack Moss landing on Injured Reserve, it’s clear the Bengals don’t fully trust Chase Brown in pass protection. They’ve consistently used Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample in the backfield on 3rd down since Moss went down. And they’ve occasionally had Mike Gesicki in the slot on those snaps as well. In turn, the Bengals have seven 3rd-down dropbacks with three TEs on the field since Moss’ injury. No other team had more than two over that time span.

Now, I’d love it if Brown was getting reps in those situations instead, as they could result in a check-down pass attempt. But that might just be greed on my part. Brown has had 100% of the Bengals’ RB rush attempts without Moss. And he had 11 (!) targets in the Week 10 loss to the Ravens. Obviously, not every game will end in a 35-34 shootout, but Brown is excelling despite the lack of trust in pass protection.

Chiefs: Missing an Explosive Run Element

Isiah Pacheco only played two games this season before going down with a fractured fibula. And with the injury, the Chiefs are sorely lacking his explosive runs. Pacheco finished 16th in the number of carries earning 10+ yards in 2023. Almost 10% of his attempts hit at least 10 yards last season. Meanwhile, the graph below shows success rate on the x-axis and explosive run rate on the y-axis for this season. You’ll find Kareem Hunt all the way at the bottom.

This is indicative of the Chiefs offense as a whole this season. Hunt has an above-average success rate among qualifying RBs but by far the lowest rate of 10+ yard gains. Now, he got home for fantasy managers in Week 10 thanks to his 10 (!) targets. His 25% target share against the Broncos came out of nowhere, after averaging a 5% target share on the season. It was his first game with more than three targets this year. But for the sake of the Chiefs, here’s hoping Pacheco returns soon and brings an explosive run element with him.

Dawson Knox: Sneaky Week 11 Play

Dalton Kincaid left Week 10 with a knee injury. As of writing this article, the severity of that knee injury is unknown, as is Kincaid’s Week 11 status. But if Kincaid sits, Dawson Knox is a viable tight-end streamer against the Chiefs. Especially for the Trey McBride manager looking for a bye-week fill-in. The Chiefs have been the second-most advantageous matchup for opposing TEs this season. They’ve given up 50-plus-yard games to six different TEs, according to JJ Zachariason.

The Chiefs have one of the strongest run defenses in the league. So, it’s a strength-on-strength matchup between the Bills’ rushing attack and the Chiefs’ run defense. But the Chiefs have been much more susceptible to opposing passing attacks this season. In what should be a close game, with a narrow spread of 1.5-to-2.5 points on most sportsbooks, the Bills may need to pass more than they’d like in this one. Knox could be a beneficiary of Kincaid’s injury and a pass-necessary game script.

Jayden Daniels: Rushing Post-Injury

Jayden Daniels suffered a rib injury in Week 7. In the weeks before the injury, Daniels was averaging about 11 rushing attempts and 54 rushing yards per game. But we’ve seen that rushing volume dip since the injury. In the three following weeks, he’s been closer to six rushing attempts and 31 rushing yards per game. Week 10 was particularly bad with only three rushing attempts for five yards.

But he’s played some difficult defenses during that span. The Bears and Steelers have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, and Daniels faced both of them in his last three games. The Commanders also haven’t had their bye week yet, and it comes the week before the fantasy playoffs start. I don’t think anyone is selling Daniels low, but he’s an obvious buy candidate after the Commanders happened to score all of their touchdowns on non-Daniels rushes in Week 10. With some time to heal before the fantasy playoffs, I’d imagine we see his rushing volume tick back up as well.

Adonai Mitchell: More Routes Please

With Michael Pittman missing Week 10 due to a back issue, Adonai Mitchell got a lot more run. And he took advantage of the opportunity. Week 10 was Mitchell’s second-most targets (6), most receptions (6), and most receiving yards (71) of his young career. Similar to Jauan Jennings, Mitchell did most of his damage lined up out wide. His four receptions while on the line of scrimmage out wide were the most by a Colts receiver in a game this season.

Mitchell’s peripheral statistics have been elite this season on a small sample. He’s earned a target on a fantastic 29.3% of his routes. And he is third among all WRs in ESPN Analytics’ open score. He’s separating at an elite rate, which is letting him earn targets at an elite rate. We just need more routes for Mitchell. He tied Alec Pierce for the most routes run on the Colts in Week 10. Even with Pittman returning, I’m hopeful the Colts will finally replace Pierce’s role with Mitchell completely. He’s earned it.

Audric Estime Has the Hot Hand

Just like Adonai Mitchell, Audric Estime had the best game of his rookie season in Week 10. After not hitting more than five attempts in any game, Estime got 14 rushing attempts against the Chiefs’ stout run defense. That compares to only one attempt for Javonte Williams. Estime’s 82.4% RB rush share was the highest for any Broncos’ RB this season.

I wish this situation was cleaner than it is. My guess is that the Broncos went with a hot-hand approach after Estime’s first three carries each went for six or more yards. But that means this backfield could flip back to Williams at any point. Williams also ran more routes than Estime in this one, with his 10 to 8 lead crucial for fantasy points. Estime is going to be a hot commodity on waivers this week, and for good reason. But I’d wait to see what the split is like this week before trusting Estime in a great Week 12 matchup against the Raiders.

Steelers: Live or Die by the Deep Shot

The Steelers offense managed only a 39% success rate against the Commanders in Week 10. And they ran the ball at a rate well above expected, despite hitting a very mediocre -0.20 EPA per rush. So, how on Earth did they win this game? Well, it was just Russell Wilson's deep shots and an excellent defense. Moving forward, I think you’ll be able to determine if the Steelers won by looking solely at Wilson’s deep pass attempts. Did they hit? Well, the Steelers were probably competitive. Did they miss? Then the Steelers almost certainly lost.

They’ve been hitting this season so far. Wilson is first in EPA per play on throws of 20+ air yards. In Week 10, Wilson hit Mike Williams for a 32-yard TD and George Pickens for a 34-yard reception. And the Steelers get to play the Ravens in Week 11, a defense that continues to get gashed by explosive passing plays. But despite how insane Pickens has played recently, the sustainability of this approach is highly questionable. If the low-probability deep shots start to miss, this Steelers offense is going to be a brutal watch. But I wouldn’t expect the misses to start this week.

Week 11 Passing and Rushing Matchups

On the passing front, I’d expect a healthy dose of Russell Wilson moonballs against the Ravens as mentioned. And the Lions have the best matchup of the week on paper. But will the Jaguars offense be able to push the Lions enough to force them to pass? I’d expect a lot of David Montgomery instead.

On the rushing front, the Eagles find themselves in their typical location in the top-right of the graph. It should be a fun Thursday night game against the Commanders. Perhaps Jalen Hurts will let Saquon Barkley score a rushing TD again. I’m also personally hoping the Raiders’ rushing attack improves so they don’t break this graph every week.